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You want to pay attention to:
The teams’ current form Which players are in the squad Previous results between the two clubs Club politics.
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Let’s look at why these tips will help you decide on the most likely footy score prediction.
By taking the teams’ current form into account, you pick up on a trend. This trend allows you to predict the next outcome rather accurately. You should also consider the average amount of goals scored in previous matches. That way, you can bet on a correct score double too.
The players in the squad determine the outcome of the match. Knowing if key players are missing due to cards or injuries can help you determine if the team in question is likely to win or even score at all.
All outcomes of previous matches played against a team shed a lot of light on upcoming meets. Some clubs have quite a record against others. Often, an unbeaten record between two clubs gives you insight into the players’ mindsets. Knowing you’re going up against a team you’ve never beaten is a bit of a mental hurdle.
Football rumours are rife. Player transfers, managers sacked for not achieving results, and even player drama, which we have all heard. The validity to some, if not most rumours, takes time to surface. That’s why you should never base an outcome on a story until it is proven right.
Using these free correct score predictions for today will help you tomorrow. There are plenty of soccer correct score tips out there. Adding them to your arsenal will only make betting on the correct score easier.
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So far, the 2020 Premier League season has offered a lot of upsets as well as a few predictable outcomes. One of the most significant predictions has seen one of the top four teams soar to the top of the leaderboard and run away with the title. There’s even talk of the points record for the season being broken.
Some upsets we’ve seen so far include some of the big clubs, who are spending most of their time lower down in the table. Much lower than punters thought. As expected, the fear of coach sacking and relegation is causing concern within some squads. But, there is still time to inch back up the table and achieve a decent position before the end of the season.




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January 29, 2021 07:17 PM.
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DENMARK: 2nd Division Mosonmagya.TE vs Gyor Pick: HT/FT X-2 ; Result 1:1 / 2:3 ; Odd: 5.00.
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LAST VIP TICKET 26.12.2020 THE BEST FIXED MATCHES 100% SURE.
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British football has become popular all over the world. It’s still most popular within the UK, though, where it’s the country’s number one spectator sport and also attracts the most betting interest.
With that in mind, and the fact that gambling laws are so complicated in the region, it makes sense to for our focus to be on Football Fixed Matches Online Betting from the UK.
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There is general confusion about the legalities of online sports betting in the UK. However, by recent changes to laws that have allowed each state to handle the regulation of sports betting individually. However, although we’re not lawyers or legal experts, it’s clear enough to us that there’s no law preventing Americans from gambling on football matches today .
It’s especially important for British to use sites that they know are reputable, though. There are some sites out there that are most definitely not.
Also on this page is a look at some of the reasons why you should use online football betting websites for your wagers. Also the details of the wagering options available at the sportsbooks we recommend. We’ve offered some expert tips to help you win money in your Soccer Betting Matches Today .
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When it comes to ranking real money football betting sites , or any type of gambling site for that matter, we have to bear in mind that people have different preferences and requirements. The “best” site for one person may not necessarily be the best for someone else.
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The benefits of using legal football betting sites that are subject to regulation by reputable authorities should be obvious. The last thing you want to worry about when betting on football online is whether a site is going to disappear with your money or not pay you your winnings.
Once we’ve established that a site is definitely a legit operation that is safe to use, we start assessing all the other factors that make for a top football betting site . Here are some examples.
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The best online betting sites and bookmakers go the extra mile to make it easy for their users to deposit and withdraw funds. There are multiple convenient deposit methods offered at all of the sites we recommend. So you’ll definitely be able to fund your account with no problems.
Withdrawals are just as easily facilitated, and the turnaround times are surprisingly rapid. This is especially true when you use Bitcoin to fund your account. Since there is no middleman or intermediary, the transactions can be facilitated in minutes at the best football betting websites .
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When your hard-earned money is going to be deposited at an online betting site , you want to be able to speak to a real human being when and if you have any questions or concerns. The top football betting sites take this dynamic to heart, and as a response, they provide world-class service on every level.
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Football Fixed Matches Online Betting can be a time-sensitive endeavor, and when depositing your own money, you want to be able to initiate transactions with no obstacles. Things happen, and this is understandable, but quality real money online sportsbooks have to keep downtime to an absolute minimum, and they do just that.
We have all seen websites that have the eye-candy graphics, but you’re not visiting them to see the highlight of a web designer’s portfolio. Ease of navigation is what it’s all about for the sports bettor, and our preferred sites are definitely no-nonsense in that regard.


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target="_blank">http://www.mykoreabuddy.com/wp/wp-admin/index.php?replycontent=<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fcutt.ly%2FtgUsZ9U><img+src%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FrbgFnyV%2Ffixed-matches.jpg%22><%2Fa>+%0D%0A+%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F3dWKdMz><img+src%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FLv6390Z%2Fjoin-button.png%22><%2Fa>+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A%D0%BF%C2%BB%D1%97CED+base+RoE+v1.6.4+full+-+RoE+only+%21%0D%0AA+Mod+for+Doom+3.%0D%0AUpdates.%0D%0AThis+Doom+3+mod+is+based+on+the+awesome+CED+Chimuelo+el+Dragon+mod+and+adds+a+lot+of+new+features+and+a+much+faster+gameplay%2C+less+realistic+but+more+playable+action.+Also+this+mod+is+RoE+compatible+with+just+renaming+the+file+zzzzzz_d3xp_ced_base.pk4.zip+to+zzzzzz_d3xp_ced_base.pk4+and+loading+it+as+a+mod+if+used+from+the+D3XP+RoE+already+loaded+first.%0D%0AVery+Important.+To+see+all+the+new+textures+and+skins+the+autoexec.cfg+should+have+this+command+activated.%0D%0Aset+image_useNormalCompression+0.%0D%0AUpdates+on+CED+mod.%0D%0Av1.6.4-+%28full%29+-+Lowered+the+health+of+Monster+Hunter+HellTime+to+250+from+1000+units+before%2C+it+was+too+much+.+-+Fixed+some+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.6.3-+%28full%29+-+Bettered+particles+effects+for+most+monsters+weapons.+-+Changed+the+fire+sound+for+the+shotgun+for+both+ZSecs+and+Player.%0D%0Av1.6.2-+%28full%29+-+Latest+shaders+%28mate+version+%21%29.+-+Updated+scripts+for+pistol%2C+machinegun+and+plasmagun+for+the+alternate+fire+of+each+weapon+to+do+more+damage+and+2x+faster+velocity+of+the+bullet.%0D%0Av1.6.1-+%28full%29+-+Latest+Shaders.+-+Changed+the+skin+for+the+shotgun%2C+now+is+still+white%2C+but+with+some+dark+blue+instead+of+black.+-+Added+the+ImmersiveHD+sound+for+CED.+-+Updated+%26+Bettered+some+particles+effects+for+smoke.+-+Now%2C+the+alternate+fire+for+plasmagun+weapons+fires+the+right+number+of+fireballs+and+with+less+spread%2C+so+it+should+be+more+effective+%21%0D%0Av1.6-+%28full%29+-+Fixed+the+x1+and+x3+button+on+the+pistol.+-+Bettered+some+models.+-+Faster+reload+animations+for+pistol%2C+machinegun+and+plasmagun.+-+Better+RoE+compatibility.%0D%0Av1.5b-+%28full%29+-+Darkened+even+more+the+machinegun+skin.+-+Bettered+some+zombie+maint+heads+color+tone.+-+Fixed+the+flashlight+button+on+pistol.+-+Fixed+shotgun%2C+shotgun_double+and+pistol+toggle+on+and+off+for+D3XP+only%2C+now+works+%21+-+Updated+shaders.%0D%0Av1.5a-+%28full%29+-+Bettered+the+plasmagun+both+fire+and+alt-fire.+-+Reload+animation+for+both+plasmagun+and+machinegun+are+much+faster+now+%21+-+Bettered+the+machinegun+both+fire+and+alt-fire.+-+Darker+skin+for+machinegun.+-+Fixed+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.5+-+%28full%29+-+Enhanced+all+weapons.+-+Fixed+a+lot+of+bugs.+-+Better+shaders.+-+Better+Sentry.%0D%0Av1.4a..%28update%29+-+Changed+the+shotgun+position%2C+now+is+perfect+%21+-+Fixed+a+bug+that%2C+when+in+D3XP+mode%2C+made+the+pistol+to+start+with+0+bullets%2C+now+it+starts+with+17%2C+like+in+base.+-+Fixed+the+Sentry%2C+now+works+perfect+.+-+Powered+up+the+Secondary+fire+for+the+Plamagun.+-+The+Chaingunner+health+increassed+from+130+to+150.+-+Added+optional+Gloves+from+Doom+3%3A+Phobos+by+Team+Future.+-+Fixed+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.4.+%28update%29+-+Now%2C+Imps%2C+Hellknights%2C+Revenants+and+CyberDemon+use+%22rockettrail.prt%22+newer+smoke+particle+%21+-+Enhaced+all+weapons.+-+Many+NEW+features+and+changes+i+really+don%27t+remember+now+%21+-+Added+white+shotgun+skin+%21+-+New+Shaders+%21+-+Fixed+bugs.%0D%0Av1.3.+%28update%29+-+Made+the+raise+and+reload+animations+for+the+shotgun%2C+to+be+much+faster+now.+-+Increassed+two+points+the+machinegun+damage.+-+Enhanced+soda+machines%2C+they+look+even+better+now+%21+-+Brighter+flashlight+and+shotgun+flashlight.+-+Fixed+handgrenade+not+doing+light.+-+Rockets+go+slightly+slower%2C+but+very+fast%2C+still.+-+Plasmagun+does+more+light.+-+Flashlight+skin+is+blue%2C+now.+-+Changed+skin+color+to+blue%2C+for+some+items%2C+like+medkit+small%2C+large+and+armor+shard.+-+Now+the+grenade+has+some+brighter+points+in+orange+color+visible+in+the+dark.+-+Changed+skin+colors+for+some+weapons.+-+Changed+skin+color+for+Imp+and+Imp+branded.+-+Changed+skin+for+zombie+maint.+-+Added+a+fire+light+to+the+LostSouls+and+Forgottens.+-+Compatible+100%25+with+Wulfen%2FMonoxead+textures%2C+requires+%22%2Bset+image_usePrecompressedTextures+0%22+to+be+set.+-+Added+the+great+IDO+sounds+to+the+ammo+pickups.+-+Doubled+ressolution+for+rocketlauncher%2C+also+changed+its+skin+color.+-+Added+low+ammo+warning+to+machinegun+and+plasmagun.%0D%0A-+Fixed+the+shotgun+reload+script%2C+for+being+able+to+stop+reloading+and+fire+the+shotgun+in+middle+reload.+-+Changed+the+chaingun+fire+color+for+both+player+and+Zombie+CGUN%2C+now+is+yellow+and+does+less+spread+also.+-+Updated+the+shaders+to+latest+version.+-+Fixes+small+bugs+on+double+shotgun.+-+Latest+NEW+A.I.+updated.+-+NEW+mainmenu+music.+-+Fixed+CGUN+plasma+sounds.+-+Fixed+monster_Zsec_Machinegun.+-+Fixed+weapon+pistol.+-+Fixed+RoE+mode+%28like+not+getting+the+grabber+weapon+after+the+cinematic+on+Erebus1+map+and+more%29.+-+Added+zoom+text+in+orange+color+to+the+rocketlauncher.+-+Added+smoke+for+all+zombies+with+guns%2C+like+zsecs+and+commandos.+-+Added+custom+Zoom+for+the+double+barrel+shotgun%2C+amazing+.+%3AD+-+Added+own+crosshair+for+the+double+barrel+shotgun+at+last+%21+-+Now+the+burgers+and+coke+cans+give+1+health+and+30+stamine%2C+respectively.%0D%0A-+Increassed+the+max_ammo+for+all+weapons.+-+New+grey+color+and+skin+for+the+machinegun.+-+New+enhanced+detail+for+machinegun%2C+plasmagun%2C+chaingun%2C+shotgun+and+handgrenade.+-+Halved+the+damage+for+ZCommando_CGUN%2C+was+too+much%2C+now+is+dangerous+still%2C+but+balanced.+-+Fixed+problems+with+.DDS+textures+for+weapons+skins.+-+Fixed+some+little+sound+problems.+-+Changed+the+classic+chaingun+that+used+bullets+for+the+new+chaingun+that+use+plasma+%28like+in+RAGE%29+%21+-+Fixed+plasmablast+splash+on+plasmagun+weapon.+-+Added+NEW+ZCommando+Plasma+replacing+the+ZCommando+CGun.+-+Added+NEW+Imp+E3+by+Zakyrus%2C+much+faster+and+dangerous+than+before+%21%0D%0A-+Chimuelo+el+Dragon+based+mod.+-+Hides+croshair+when+reloading.+-+Hides+crosshair+when+on+a+ladder%2C+not+only+the+weapon.+-+The+crosshair+moves+when+running%2C+%28go+big+and+small%29.+-+When+the+player+is+not+on+the+ground+the+croshire+changes+its+size+for+a+litle+time.+-+When+the+player+gets+hit+by+some+enemy%2C+the+crosshire+changes+its+size+too.+-+Grenade+weapon+do+not+cycle+and+can+be+toggled.+-+Optimized+machinegun+and+plasmagun+fire+scripts.+-+Flashlight+item+uses+same+material+light+as+the+shotgun.+-+Plasmagun+makes+a+better+muzzleflash+but+keeping+it+fast.+-+Machinegun+ejects+brass+again%2C+but+a+better+one.+-+Shotgun+ejected+shells+cast+shadows.+-+New+A.I.+for+all+monsters+and+zombies.+-+New+Shaders+using+my+Riddick+shaders+latest+version.+-+Brilliant+skin+for+chaingun+%28only+the+barrel%29%2C+plasmagun+and+BFG+weapons.+-+Soda+machines+both+red+and+green%2C+now+are+brighter+and+more+realistic+than+before.+-+Faster+chaingun+barrel+rotation+and+fire.+-+Faster+plasmagun+fire+and+new+plasmaglow+light+for+it.+-+GUIs+for+machinegun%2C+chaingun+and+plasmagun+don%27t+have+light%2C+but+BFG+does+a+different+more+blue+light+color.+-+Pistol+and+rocketlauncher+both+have+the+laser+pointer+active+by+default.+-+Fixed+ZCommando+cgun+fire+light.+-+New+fire+sound+for+the+plasmagun+weapon.+-+Shotgun+double+added+on+every+backpack.+-+Mancubus+and+Revenants+now+does+muzzleflash+light+when+firing+its+fireballs+and+rockets+respectively.+-+Fixed+small+bugs+on+CEDBase+mod.%0D%0A-+GUIs+don%27t+make+the+crosshair+to+hide.+-+NPCs+show+its+name+but+the+crosshair+should+hide+and+it+doesn%27t.+-%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0ACED+Base+v1.6.4+full+-+Doom+3.%0D%0AA+Mod+for+Doom+3.%0D%0AUpdates.%0D%0AThis+Doom+3+mod+is+based+on+the+awesome+CED+Chimuelo+el+Dragon+mod+and+adds+a+lot+of+new+features+and+a+much+faster+gameplay%2C+less+realistic+but+more+playable+action.+Also+this+mod+is+RoE+compatible+with+just+renaming+the+file+zzzzzz_d3xp_ced_base.pk4.zip+to+zzzzzz_d3xp_ced_base.pk4+and+loading+it+as+a+mod+if+used+from+the+D3XP+RoE+already+loaded+first.%0D%0AVery+Important.+To+see+all+the+new+textures+and+skins+the+autoexec.cfg+should+have+this+command+activated.%0D%0Aset+image_useNormalCompression+0.%0D%0AUpdates+on+CED+mod.%0D%0Av1.6.4-+%28full%29+-+Lowered+the+health+of+Monster+Hunter+HellTime+to+250+from+1000+units+before%2C+it+was+too+much+.+%28RoE+only+%21%29+-+Fixed+some+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.6.3-+%28full%29+-+Bettered+particles+effects+for+most+monsters+weapons.+-+Changed+the+fire+sound+for+the+shotgun+for+both+ZSecs+and+Player.%0D%0Av1.6.2-+%28full%29+-+Latest+shaders+%28mate+version+%21%29.+-+Updated+scripts+for+pistol%2C+machinegun+and+plasmagun+for+the+alternate+fire+of+each+weapon+to+do+more+damage+and+2x+faster+velocity+of+the+bullet.%0D%0Av1.6.1-+%28full%29+-+Latest+Shaders.+-+Changed+the+skin+for+the+shotgun%2C+now+is+still+white%2C+but+with+some+dark+blue+instead+of+black.+-+Added+the+ImmersiveHD+sound+for+CED.+-+Updated+%26+Bettered+some+particles+effects+for+smoke.+-+Now%2C+the+alternate+fire+for+plasmagun+weapons+fires+the+right+number+of+fireballs+and+with+less+spread%2C+so+it+should+be+more+effective+%21%0D%0Av1.6-+%28full%29+-+Fixed+the+x1+and+x3+button+on+the+pistol.+-+Bettered+some+models.+-+Faster+reload+animations+for+pistol%2C+machinegun+and+plasmagun.%0D%0Av1.5b-+%28full%29+-+Darkened+even+more+the+machinegun+skin.+-+Bettered+some+zombie+maint+heads+color+tone.+-+Fixed+the+flashlight+button+on+pistol.+-+Updated+shaders.%0D%0Av1.5a-+%28full%29+-+Bettered+the+plasmagun+both+fire+and+alt-fire.+-+Reload+animation+for+both+plasmagun+and+machinegun+are+much+faster+now+%21+-+Bettered+the+machinegun+both+fire+and+alt-fire.+-+Darker+skin+for+machinegun.+-+Fixed+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.5+-+%28full%29+-+Enhanced+all+weapons.+-+Fixed+a+lot+of+bugs.+-+Better+shaders.+-+Better+Sentry.%0D%0Av1.4a..%28update%29+-+Changed+the+shotgun+position%2C+now+is+perfect+%21+-+Fixed+a+bug+that%2C+when+in+D3XP+mode%2C+made+the+pistol+to+start+with+0+bullets%2C+now+it+starts+with+17%2C+like+in+base.+-+Fixed+the+Sentry%2C+now+works+perfect+.+-+Powered+up+the+Secondary+fire+for+the+Plamagun.+-+The+Chaingunner+health+increassed+from+130+to+150.+-+Added+optional+Gloves+from+Doom+3%3A+Phobos+by+Team+Future.+-+Fixed+small+bugs.%0D%0Av1.4.+%28update%29+-+Now%2C+Imps%2C+Hellknights%2C+Revenants+and+CyberDemon+use+%22rockettrail.prt%22+newer+smoke+particle+%21+-+Enhaced+all+weapons.+-+Many+NEW+features+and+changes+i+really+don%27t+remember+now+%21+-+Added+white+shotgun+skin+%21+-+New+Shaders+%21+-+Fixed+bugs.%0D%0Av1.3.+%28update%29+-+Made+the+raise+and+reload+animations+for+the+shotgun%2C+to+be+much+faster+now.+-+Increassed+two+points+the+machinegun+damage.+-+Enhanced+soda+machines%2C+they+look+even+better+now+%21+-+Brighter+flashlight+and+shotgun+flashlight.+-+Fixed+handgrenade+not+doing+light.+-+Rockets+go+slightly+slower%2C+but+very+fast%2C+still.+-+Plasmagun+does+more+light.+-+Flashlight+skin+is+blue%2C+now.+-+Changed+skin+color+to+blue%2C+for+some+items%2C+like+medkit+small%2C+large+and+armor+shard.+-+Now+the+grenade+has+some+brighter+points+in+orange+color+visible+in+the+dark.+-+Changed+skin+colors+for+some+weapons.+-+Changed+skin+color+for+Imp+and+Imp+branded.+-+Changed+skin+for+zombie+maint.+-+Added+a+fire+light+to+the+LostSouls+and+Forgottens.+-+Compatible+100%25+with+Wulfen%2FMonoxead+textures%2C+requires+%22%2Bset+image_usePrecompressedTextures+0%22+to+be+set.+-+Added+the+great+IDO+sounds+to+the+ammo+pickups.+-+Doubled+ressolution+for+rocketlauncher%2C+also+changed+its+skin+color.+-+Added+low+ammo+warning+to+machinegun+and+plasmagun.%0D%0A-+Fixed+the+shotgun+reload+script%2C+for+being+able+to+stop+reloading+and+fire+the+shotgun+in+middle+reload.+-+Changed+the+chaingun+fire+color+for+both+player+and+Zombie+CGUN%2C+now+is+yellow+and+does+less+spread+also.+-+Updated+the+shaders+to+latest+version.+-+Fixes+small+bugs+on+double+shotgun.+-+Latest+NEW+A.I.+updated.+-+NEW+mainmenu+music.+-+Fixed+CGUN+plasma+sounds.+-+Fixed+monster_Zsec_Machinegun.+-+Fixed+weapon+pistol.+-+Fixed+RoE+mode+%28like+not+getting+the+grabber+weapon+after+the+cinematic+on+Erebus1+map+and+more%29.+-+Added+zoom+text+in+orange+color+to+the+rocketlauncher.+-+Added+smoke+for+all+zombies+with+guns%2C+like+zsecs+and+commandos.+-+Added+custom+Zoom+for+the+double+barrel+shotgun%2C+amazing+.+%3AD+-+Added+own+crosshair+for+the+double+barrel+shotgun+at+last+%21+-+Now+the+burgers+and+coke+cans+give+1+health+and+30+stamine%2C+respectively.%0D%0A-+Increassed+the+max_ammo+for+all+weapons.+-+New+grey+color+and+skin+for+the+machinegun.+-+New+enhanced+detail+for+machinegun%2C+plasmagun%2C+chaingun%2C+shotgun+and+handgrenade.+-+Halved+the+damage+for+ZCommando_CGUN%2C+was+too+much%2C+now+is+dangerous+still%2C+but+balanced.+-+Fixed+problems+with+.DDS+textures+for+weapons+skins.+-+Fixed+some+little+sound+problems.+-+Changed+the+classic+chaingun+that+used+bullets+for+the+new+chaingun+that+use+plasma+%28like+in+RAGE%29+%21+-+Fixed+plasmablast+splash+on+plasmagun+weapon.+-+Added+NEW+ZCommando+Plasma+replacing+the+ZCommando+CGun.+-+Added+NEW+Imp+E3+by+Zakyrus%2C+much+faster+and+dangerous+than+before+%21%0D%0A-+Chimuelo+el+Dragon+based+mod.+-+Hides+croshair+when+reloading.+-+Hides+crosshair+when+on+a+ladder%2C+not+only+the+weapon.+-+The+crosshair+moves+when+running%2C+%28go+big+and+small%29.+-+When+the+player+is+not+on+the+ground+the+croshire+changes+its+size+for+a+litle+time.+-+When+the+player+gets+hit+by+some+enemy%2C+the+crosshire+changes+its+size+too.+-+Grenade+weapon+do+not+cycle+and+can+be+toggled.+-+Optimized+machinegun+and+plasmagun+fire+scripts.+-+Flashlight+item+uses+same+material+light+as+the+shotgun.+-+Plasmagun+makes+a+better+muzzleflash+but+keeping+it+fast.+-+Machinegun+ejects+brass+again%2C+but+a+better+one.+-+Shotgun+ejected+shells+cast+shadows.+-+New+A.I.+for+all+monsters+and+zombies.+-+New+Shaders+using+my+Riddick+shaders+latest+version.+-+Brilliant+skin+for+chaingun+%28only+the+barrel%29%2C+plasmagun+and+BFG+weapons.+-+Soda+machines+both+red+and+green%2C+now+are+brighter+and+more+realistic+than+before.+-+Faster+chaingun+barrel+rotation+and+fire.+-+Faster+plasmagun+fire+and+new+plasmaglow+light+for+it.+-+GUIs+for+machinegun%2C+chaingun+and+plasmagun+don%27t+have+light%2C+but+BFG+does+a+different+more+blue+light+color.+-+Pistol+and+rocketlauncher+both+have+the+laser+pointer+active+by+default.+-+Fixed+ZCommando+cgun+fire+light.+-+New+fire+sound+for+the+plasmagun+weapon.+-+Shotgun+double+added+on+every+backpack.+-+Mancubus+and+Revenants+now+does+muzzleflash+light+when+firing+its+fireballs+and+rockets+respectively.+-+Fixed+small+bugs+on+CEDBase+mod.%0D%0A-+GUIs+don%27t+make+the+crosshair+to+hide.+-+NPCs+show+its+name+but+the+crosshair+should+hide+and+it+doesn%27t.+-%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AThread%3A+Evernight+is+fixed%3F%0D%0AThread+Tools.%0D%0AShow+Printable+Version.%0D%0ASearch+Thread.%0D%0ADisplay.%0D%0ALinear+Mode+Switch+to+Hybrid+Mode+Switch+to+Threaded+Mode.%0D%0AEvernight+is+fixed%3F%0D%0AToday+after+afternoon+Evernight+update+I+had+no+decoration+bug+and+no+login+issues+on+all+my+characters.+And+nobody+from+my+kinship+reported+such+issues.%0D%0AAnd+population+even+went+up+to+1100+people+that+are+not+anon.%0D%0AThe+loading+bar+still+feels+like+it+gets+a+timeout.+But+instead+of+staying+unloaded+forever+and+forcing+the+alt-f4.+It+now+seems+to+reset+and+loads+nearly+100%25+off+the+time.+Think+i%27ve+heard+of+1+kinnie+that+had+a+loading+issue.+And+we%27ve+stressed+the+relogging+heavily+during+summoning+hour+for+the+instances.%0D%0AAnecdotely+the+housing+loading+also+seems+to+be+a+lot+better.%0D%0AYou+did+it%21+You+finally+fixed+it%21+After+weeks+and+weeks+of+listening+to+half+the+raid+get+stuck+on+the+load+screen+several+times+a+night+to+absolutely+none+from+anyone+tonight.+Felt+much+faster+loading+into+the+game+and+swapping+people+between+raid+groups+wasnt+lagging+as+much.%0D%0AIt+does+seem+that+the+client%2Fserver+are+now+able+to+acknowledge+a+timeout+in+the+login+process+and+retry+when+it+happens.%0D%0AI%27ve+seen+a+flash+of+a+second+loading+screen+%28loading+image+changes+midway+through+loading%29+followed+by+chat+logs+clear+of+the+channels+that+I%27m+connected+to+%28but+the+channels+are+working%29.%0D%0AQuirky%2C+but+it+works%21%0D%0AI+only+caught+the+message+after+pops+had+fallen+too+low.+I+did+a+cycle+through+ingredients+pack+toons+without+holding+the+instance+with+an+alt+account+char+and+the+yard+displayed+fine+each+time.+Checked+out+the+rest+of+the+neighbourhood+and+there+were+no+obvious+missing+yards+although+my+friend%27s+house+still+doesn%27t+show+ownership.%0D%0AI+have+been+play+on+32-bit%2C+stubbornly+waiting+a+proper+fix%2C+and+porting+to+places+and+exiting+buildings+has+been+%22sluggish%22+so+I+might+ask+if+kerbelettos+is+running+32-bit+as+well%3F+Took+a+while+for+character+to+properly+animate+and+for+mobs+to+become+visible+when+already+attacking.+So+in+prep+to+test+peak+pop+I+hid+the+64.ini+and+ran+from+the+default.+Changes+are+stable+so+can+now+discount+the+32-bit+effects.%0D%0AEvernight+pop+at+561+now+so+a+while+yet+for+a+good+test+but+will+go+up+to+Eldarslade+and+check+if+the+%22sluggishness%22+is+still+apparent.%0D%0AI+have+been+wondering+the+Robbing+of+Peter+though.%0D%0ATook+all+my+chars+away+from+their+optimum+loading+locations+and+put+them+all+out+into+notorious+load+locations.+Pops+in+the+mid+700+non-anons+and+all+chars+logged+in+without+issue+and+all+travelled+home+to+be+met+by+a+full+yard+displayed.%0D%0AIs+this+something+that+can+be+applied+to+other+servers+or+is+a+balancing+of+resources%3F+I%27m+thinking+of+a+reprise+of+the+protest+but+as+a+celebration+tour+of+other+servers.%0D%0AWill+it+likely+address+the+issues+we+have+loading+into+group+instances+of+late+where+odd+things+don%27t+load%3B+a+corrupted+tree+missing%2C+no+popup+entry+quest+or+no+mobs+to+kill+to+dispel+mist+blocking+our+way%3F+%2A%0D%0ALikely+you+now+know+just+how+long+it%27s+been+an+issue+and+how+long+players+have+suffered%3F+Does+it+make+you+think+how+annoying+it+must+be+when+our+concerns+are+ignored+for+years%3F%0D%0AThanks+to+whoever+found+what+seems+to+be+the+solution%2C+but+why+didn%27t+you+look+earlier%3F%0D%0AP.S.+%2A+Also+MoL%27s+occasionally+missing+Merivale+from+the+MM+BBOM+quest%3F%0D%0ASpot+tests+with+numbers+at+800+and+now+900+have+loading+still+functioning+very+well%2C+no+issues+and+full+housing+instance+on+show.+Not+got+any+Premium+houses+ofc+-+was+little+point+on+Evernight.%0D%0AWeekend+numbers+should+be+the+final+proof+of+it.%0D%0AHousing+loading+is+definitely+better%2C+after+I+have+vigorously+tested+it+this+evening.+However+%28sorry+there+is+a+however%29%2C+where+things+are+loading+in+fine+now%2C+permissions+is+playing+up.+I+gave+permissions+to+a+character+and+they+appear+in+the+list+with+all+the+relevant+boxes+ticked%2C+but+the+character+does+not+have+permissions+to+do+any+of+the+functions+that+I+set+up+for+it+%28e.g.+cannot+open+house+chest%2C+or+decorate+etc%29.+Also%2C+once+the+character+giving+permissions+had+done+so%2C+they+can+no+longer+enter+the+permissions+panel+to+try+reapplying+the+permission.+Clicking+Permissions+just+doesn%27t+do+anything+at+all.%0D%0AGame+character+loading+seems+to+be+a+lot+better.%0D%0ATreat+others+as+you+do+your+best+pictures%2C+and+place+them+in+their+best+light.%0D%0AHave+you+not+got+it+Arnenna%2C+you%27re+not+supposed+to+be+inviting+people+in%2C+got+to+be+patrolling+your+stoop+weapons+drawn+and+building+a+wall.+So+back+to+switch+it+off+and+on+again%3F%0D%0AYeah+still+anxious+about+a+knock+on+effect+as+Cords+message+was+just+another+of+the+crossed+fingers+hope+for+the+best+that%27s+proven+not+to+make+any+marked+difference+before.%0D%0AThis+time+it+very+much+has+and+can+hope+it+has+good+knock+on+effect+with+missing+content+loads+elsewhere+in+the+game+that+%27til+now+has+escaped+SSG.%0D%0AHave+you+not+got+it+Arnenna%2C+you%27re+not+supposed+to+be+inviting+people+in%2C+got+to+be+patrolling+your+stoop+weapons+drawn+and+building+a+wall.+So+back+to+switch+it+off+and+on+again%3F%0D%0AYeah+still+anxious+about+a+knock+on+effect+as+Cords+message+was+just+another+of+the+crossed+fingers+hope+for+the+best+that%27s+proven+not+to+make+any+marked+difference+before.%0D%0AThis+time+it+very+much+has+and+can+hope+it+has+good+knock+on+effect+with+missing+content+loads+elsewhere+in+the+game+that+%27til+now+has+escaped+SSG.%0D%0AWell%2C+I+have+more+than+one+house%2C+and+I+store+a+lot+of+stuff+to+help+out+kinnies%2C+so+permissions+is+probably+the+most+important+part+of+housing+from+my+perspective.%0D%0AI%27m+hoping+this+problem+will+have+cleared+itself+today%2C+but+will+test+it+later+on.+It+would+be+great+if+others+could+give+it+a+run+too%2C+and+see+if+they+have+the+same+issue.%0D%0AAs+of+4.00+am+this+morning+UK+time%2C+permissions+were+botched.+They+were+working+ok+last+week.%0D%0Ap.+s.+I%27ll+also+be+testing+based+on+ownership+today.+The+two+houses+I+tested+yesterday+were+not+owned+by+my+main+account%2C+even+though+the+alt+of+my+main+account+had+full+permissions+to+grant+other+players+permissions.+I%27ll+check+today+to+see+if+it+happens+with+my+main+account+house%2C+or+my+premium+Rohan+house.%0D%0ATreat+others+as+you+do+your+best+pictures%2C+and+place+them+in+their+best+light.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fnfl-hot-picks-today>Nfl+hot+picks+today<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ftodays-sure-betting-tips-with-high-odds>Todays+sure+betting+tips+with+high+odds<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fpremier-league-score-predictions-this-weekend>Premier+league+score+predictions+this+weekend<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fcbs-nfl-experts>Cbs+nfl+experts<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fbest-nfl-bets-week-7>Best+nfl+bets+week+7<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fnfl-chat-place>Nfl+chat+place<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fmarshalls-world-of-sport-soccer>Marshalls+world+of+sport+soccer<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fdraft-day-nhl-2020>Draft+day+nhl+2020<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fengland-horse-racing-odds>England+horse+racing+odds<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fpga-fantasy-golf-picks-this-week>Pga+fantasy+golf+picks+this+week<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Famsterdam-1x2sportal-tips>Amsterdam+1x2sportal+tips<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fstatarea-weekend-correct-score-last-night>Statarea+weekend+correct+score+last+night<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fhow-parlay-bets-work>How+parlay+bets+work<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ftomorrow-soccer-matches-and-odds>Tomorrow+soccer+matches+and+odds<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fbest-bookmakers-in-south-africa>Best+bookmakers+in+south+africa<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fbest-way-to-bet>Best+way+to+bet<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fwww-hot-odds-com-soccer>Www+hot+odds+com+soccer<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fexpected-value-betting-calculator>Expected+value+betting+calculator<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fmlb-draft-results-2017>Mlb+draft+results+2017<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ftoday-win-predictions-site>Today+Win+Predictions+Site<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ffantasy-waiver-wire-week-5>Fantasy+waiver+wire+week+5<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ffootball-mathematical-prediction-for-tomorrow>Football+mathematical+prediction+for+tomorrow<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fpick-em-week-5-nfl>Pick+em+week+5+nfl<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fsoccer-betting-sites>Soccer+betting+sites<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fmasterbig-soccer-predictions>Masterbig+soccer+predictions<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Flegal-online-sportsbook>Legal+online+sportsbook<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Folg-college-football-point-spread>Olg+college+football+point+spread<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fdevin-booker-nba-draft>Devin+booker+nba+draft<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Ftoday-soccer-fixtures-and-predictions>Today+soccer+fixtures+and+predictions<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fsteelers-mock-nfl-draft-2020>Steelers+mock+nfl+draft+2020<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Funogoal-prediction-for-today>Unogoal+prediction+for+today<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fvip-fixed-bet>Vip+fixed+bet<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.club%2Fzulu-prediction-correct-score>Zulu+prediction+correct+score<%2Fa>%0D%0A<a+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatc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Predicting Football Results With Statistical Modelling.
Combining the world’s most popular sport with everyone’s favourite discrete probability distribution, this post predicts football matches using the Poisson distribution.
David Sheehan.
Data scientist interested in sports, politics and Simpsons references.
Football (or soccer to my American readers) is full of clichés: “It’s a game of two halves”, “taking it one game at a time” and “Liverpool have failed to win the Premier League”. You’re less likely to hear “Treating the number of goals scored by each team as independent Poisson processes, statistical modelling suggests that the home team have a 60% chance of winning today”. But this is actually a bit of cliché too (it has been discussed here, here, here, here and particularly well here). As we’ll discover, a simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. So, if you came here looking to make money, I hear this guy makes £5000 per month without leaving the house.
Poisson Distribution.
HomeTeam AwayTeam HomeGoals AwayGoals 0 Burnley Swansea 0 1 1 Crystal Palace West Brom 0 1 2 Everton Tottenham 1 1 3 Hull Leicester 2 1 4 Man City Sunderland 2 1.
We imported a csv as a pandas dataframe, which contains various information for each of the 380 EPL games in the 2016-17 English Premier League season. We restricted the dataframe to the columns in which we’re interested (specifically, team names and numer of goals scored by each team). I’ll omit most of the code that produces the graphs in this post. But don’t worry, you can find that code on my github page. Our task is to model the final round of fixtures in the season, so we must remove the last 10 rows (each gameweek consists of 10 matches).
You’ll notice that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This is the so called ‘home (field) advantage’ (discussed here) and isn’t specific to soccer. This is a convenient time to introduce the Poisson distribution. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g 90 mins) with a known average rate of occurrence. A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match. Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals. If that was unclear, maybe this mathematical formulation will make clearer:
represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive, etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of specfic events.
The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where the two teams score the same amount of goals.
Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)). The difference of two Poisson distribution is actually called a Skellam distribution. So we can calculate the probability of a draw by inputting the mean goal values into this distribution.
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland (teams who finished 1st and last, respectively).
Building A Model.
You should now be convinced that the number of goals scored by each team can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Due to a relatively sample size (each team plays at most 19 home/away games), the accuracy of this approximation can vary significantly (especially earlier in the season when teams have played fewer games). Similar to before, we could now calculate the probability of various events in this Chelsea Sunderland match. But rather than treat each match separately, we’ll build a more general Poisson regression model (what is that?).
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results Dep. Variable: goals No. Observations: 740 Model: GLM Df Residuals: 700 Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 39 Link Function: log Scale: 1.0 Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -1042.4 Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 Deviance: 776.11 Time: 11:17:38 Pearson chi2: 659. No. Iterations: 8 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.] Intercept 0.3725 0.198 1.880 0.060 -0.016 0.761 team[T.Bournemouth] -0.2891 0.179 -1.612 0.107 -0.641 0.062 team[T.Burnley] -0.6458 0.200 -3.230 0.001 -1.038 -0.254 team[T.Chelsea] 0.0789 0.162 0.488 0.626 -0.238 0.396 team[T.Crystal Palace] -0.3865 0.183 -2.107 0.035 -0.746 -0.027 team[T.Everton] -0.2008 0.173 -1.161 0.246 -0.540 0.138 team[T.Hull] -0.7006 0.204 -3.441 0.001 -1.100 -0.302 team[T.Leicester] -0.4204 0.187 -2.249 0.025 -0.787 -0.054 team[T.Liverpool] 0.0162 0.164 0.099 0.921 -0.306 0.338 team[T.Man City] 0.0117 0.164 0.072 0.943 -0.310 0.334 team[T.Man United] -0.3572 0.181 -1.971 0.049 -0.713 -0.002 team[T.Middlesbrough] -1.0087 0.225 -4.481 0.000 -1.450 -0.568 team[T.Southampton] -0.5804 0.195 -2.976 0.003 -0.963 -0.198 team[T.Stoke] -0.6082 0.197 -3.094 0.002 -0.994 -0.223 team[T.Sunderland] -0.9619 0.222 -4.329 0.000 -1.397 -0.526 team[T.Swansea] -0.5136 0.192 -2.673 0.008 -0.890 -0.137 team[T.Tottenham] 0.0532 0.162 0.328 0.743 -0.265 0.371 team[T.Watford] -0.5969 0.197 -3.035 0.002 -0.982 -0.211 team[T.West Brom] -0.5567 0.194 -2.876 0.004 -0.936 -0.177 team[T.West Ham] -0.4802 0.189 -2.535 0.011 -0.851 -0.109 opponent[T.Bournemouth] 0.4109 0.196 2.092 0.036 0.026 0.796 opponent[T.Burnley] 0.1657 0.206 0.806 0.420 -0.237 0.569 opponent[T.Chelsea] -0.3036 0.234 -1.298 0.194 -0.762 0.155 opponent[T.Crystal Palace] 0.3287 0.200 1.647 0.100 -0.062 0.720 opponent[T.Everton] -0.0442 0.218 -0.202 0.840 -0.472 0.384 opponent[T.Hull] 0.4979 0.193 2.585 0.010 0.120 0.875 opponent[T.Leicester] 0.3369 0.199 1.694 0.090 -0.053 0.727 opponent[T.Liverpool] -0.0374 0.217 -0.172 0.863 -0.463 0.389 opponent[T.Man City] -0.0993 0.222 -0.448 0.654 -0.534 0.335 opponent[T.Man United] -0.4220 0.241 -1.754 0.079 -0.894 0.050 opponent[T.Middlesbrough] 0.1196 0.208 0.574 0.566 -0.289 0.528 opponent[T.Southampton] 0.0458 0.211 0.217 0.828 -0.369 0.460 opponent[T.Stoke] 0.2266 0.203 1.115 0.265 -0.172 0.625 opponent[T.Sunderland] 0.3707 0.198 1.876 0.061 -0.017 0.758 opponent[T.Swansea] 0.4336 0.195 2.227 0.026 0.052 0.815 opponent[T.Tottenham] -0.5431 0.252 -2.156 0.031 -1.037 -0.049 opponent[T.Watford] 0.3533 0.198 1.782 0.075 -0.035 0.742 opponent[T.West Brom] 0.0970 0.209 0.463 0.643 -0.313 0.507 opponent[T.West Ham] 0.3485 0.198 1.758 0.079 -0.040 0.737 home 0.2969 0.063 4.702 0.000 0.173 0.421.
If you’re curious about the smf.glm(. ) part, you can find more information here (edit: earlier versions of this post had erroneously employed a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE)- what’s the difference?). I’m more interested in the values presented in the coef column in the model summary table, which are analogous to the slopes in linear regression. Similar to logistic regression, we take the exponent of the parameter values. A positive value implies more goals (), while values closer to zero represent more neutral effects (). Towards the bottom of the table you might notice that home has a coef of 0.2969. This captures the fact that home teams generally score more goals than the away team (specifically, =1.35 times more likely). But not all teams are created equal. Chelsea has a coef of 0.0789, while the corresponding value for Sunderland is -0.9619 (sort of saying Chelsea (Sunderland) are better (much worse!) scorers than average). Finally, the opponent* values penalize/reward teams based on the quality of the opposition. This relfects the defensive strength of each team (Chelsea: -0.3036; Sunderland: 0.3707). In other words, you’re less likely to score against Chelsea. Hopefully, that all makes both statistical and intuitive sense.
Let’s start making some predictions for the upcoming matches. We simply pass our teams into poisson_model and it’ll return the expected average number of goals for that team (we need to run it twice- we calculate the expected average number of goals for each team separately). So let’s see how many goals we expect Chelsea and Sunderland to score.


Predicting Football Results With Statistical Modelling.
Combining the world’s most popular sport with everyone’s favourite discrete probability distribution, this post predicts football matches using the Poisson distribution.
David Sheehan.
Data scientist interested in sports, politics and Simpsons references.
Football (or soccer to my American readers) is full of clichés: “It’s a game of two halves”, “taking it one game at a time” and “Liverpool have failed to win the Premier League”. You’re less likely to hear “Treating the number of goals scored by each team as independent Poisson processes, statistical modelling suggests that the home team have a 60% chance of winning today”. But this is actually a bit of cliché too (it has been discussed here, here, here, here and particularly well here). As we’ll discover, a simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. So, if you came here looking to make money, I hear this guy makes £5000 per month without leaving the house.
Poisson Distribution.
HomeTeam AwayTeam HomeGoals AwayGoals 0 Burnley Swansea 0 1 1 Crystal Palace West Brom 0 1 2 Everton Tottenham 1 1 3 Hull Leicester 2 1 4 Man City Sunderland 2 1.
We imported a csv as a pandas dataframe, which contains various information for each of the 380 EPL games in the 2016-17 English Premier League season. We restricted the dataframe to the columns in which we’re interested (specifically, team names and numer of goals scored by each team). I’ll omit most of the code that produces the graphs in this post. But don’t worry, you can find that code on my github page. Our task is to model the final round of fixtures in the season, so we must remove the last 10 rows (each gameweek consists of 10 matches).
You’ll notice that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This is the so called ‘home (field) advantage’ (discussed here) and isn’t specific to soccer. This is a convenient time to introduce the Poisson distribution. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g 90 mins) with a known average rate of occurrence. A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match. Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals. If that was unclear, maybe this mathematical formulation will make clearer:
represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive, etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of specfic events.
The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where the two teams score the same amount of goals.
Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)). The difference of two Poisson distribution is actually called a Skellam distribution. So we can calculate the probability of a draw by inputting the mean goal values into this distribution.
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland (teams who finished 1st and last, respectively).
Building A Model.
You should now be convinced that the number of goals scored by each team can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Due to a relatively sample size (each team plays at most 19 home/away games), the accuracy of this approximation can vary significantly (especially earlier in the season when teams have played fewer games). Similar to before, we could now calculate the probability of various events in this Chelsea Sunderland match. But rather than treat each match separately, we’ll build a more general Poisson regression model (what is that?).
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results Dep. Variable: goals No. Observations: 740 Model: GLM Df Residuals: 700 Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 39 Link Function: log Scale: 1.0 Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -1042.4 Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 Deviance: 776.11 Time: 11:17:38 Pearson chi2: 659. No. Iterations: 8 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.] Intercept 0.3725 0.198 1.880 0.060 -0.016 0.761 team[T.Bournemouth] -0.2891 0.179 -1.612 0.107 -0.641 0.062 team[T.Burnley] -0.6458 0.200 -3.230 0.001 -1.038 -0.254 team[T.Chelsea] 0.0789 0.162 0.488 0.626 -0.238 0.396 team[T.Crystal Palace] -0.3865 0.183 -2.107 0.035 -0.746 -0.027 team[T.Everton] -0.2008 0.173 -1.161 0.246 -0.540 0.138 team[T.Hull] -0.7006 0.204 -3.441 0.001 -1.100 -0.302 team[T.Leicester] -0.4204 0.187 -2.249 0.025 -0.787 -0.054 team[T.Liverpool] 0.0162 0.164 0.099 0.921 -0.306 0.338 team[T.Man City] 0.0117 0.164 0.072 0.943 -0.310 0.334 team[T.Man United] -0.3572 0.181 -1.971 0.049 -0.713 -0.002 team[T.Middlesbrough] -1.0087 0.225 -4.481 0.000 -1.450 -0.568 team[T.Southampton] -0.5804 0.195 -2.976 0.003 -0.963 -0.198 team[T.Stoke] -0.6082 0.197 -3.094 0.002 -0.994 -0.223 team[T.Sunderland] -0.9619 0.222 -4.329 0.000 -1.397 -0.526 team[T.Swansea] -0.5136 0.192 -2.673 0.008 -0.890 -0.137 team[T.Tottenham] 0.0532 0.162 0.328 0.743 -0.265 0.371 team[T.Watford] -0.5969 0.197 -3.035 0.002 -0.982 -0.211 team[T.West Brom] -0.5567 0.194 -2.876 0.004 -0.936 -0.177 team[T.West Ham] -0.4802 0.189 -2.535 0.011 -0.851 -0.109 opponent[T.Bournemouth] 0.4109 0.196 2.092 0.036 0.026 0.796 opponent[T.Burnley] 0.1657 0.206 0.806 0.420 -0.237 0.569 opponent[T.Chelsea] -0.3036 0.234 -1.298 0.194 -0.762 0.155 opponent[T.Crystal Palace] 0.3287 0.200 1.647 0.100 -0.062 0.720 opponent[T.Everton] -0.0442 0.218 -0.202 0.840 -0.472 0.384 opponent[T.Hull] 0.4979 0.193 2.585 0.010 0.120 0.875 opponent[T.Leicester] 0.3369 0.199 1.694 0.090 -0.053 0.727 opponent[T.Liverpool] -0.0374 0.217 -0.172 0.863 -0.463 0.389 opponent[T.Man City] -0.0993 0.222 -0.448 0.654 -0.534 0.335 opponent[T.Man United] -0.4220 0.241 -1.754 0.079 -0.894 0.050 opponent[T.Middlesbrough] 0.1196 0.208 0.574 0.566 -0.289 0.528 opponent[T.Southampton] 0.0458 0.211 0.217 0.828 -0.369 0.460 opponent[T.Stoke] 0.2266 0.203 1.115 0.265 -0.172 0.625 opponent[T.Sunderland] 0.3707 0.198 1.876 0.061 -0.017 0.758 opponent[T.Swansea] 0.4336 0.195 2.227 0.026 0.052 0.815 opponent[T.Tottenham] -0.5431 0.252 -2.156 0.031 -1.037 -0.049 opponent[T.Watford] 0.3533 0.198 1.782 0.075 -0.035 0.742 opponent[T.West Brom] 0.0970 0.209 0.463 0.643 -0.313 0.507 opponent[T.West Ham] 0.3485 0.198 1.758 0.079 -0.040 0.737 home 0.2969 0.063 4.702 0.000 0.173 0.421.
If you’re curious about the smf.glm(. ) part, you can find more information here (edit: earlier versions of this post had erroneously employed a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE)- what’s the difference?). I’m more interested in the values presented in the coef column in the model summary table, which are analogous to the slopes in linear regression. Similar to logistic regression, we take the exponent of the parameter values. A positive value implies more goals (), while values closer to zero represent more neutral effects (). Towards the bottom of the table you might notice that home has a coef of 0.2969. This captures the fact that home teams generally score more goals than the away team (specifically, =1.35 times more likely). But not all teams are created equal. Chelsea has a coef of 0.0789, while the corresponding value for Sunderland is -0.9619 (sort of saying Chelsea (Sunderland) are better (much worse!) scorers than average). Finally, the opponent* values penalize/reward teams based on the quality of the opposition. This relfects the defensive strength of each team (Chelsea: -0.3036; Sunderland: 0.3707). In other words, you’re less likely to score against Chelsea. Hopefully, that all makes both statistical and intuitive sense.
Let’s start making some predictions for the upcoming matches. We simply pass our teams into poisson_model and it’ll return the expected average number of goals for that team (we need to run it twice- we calculate the expected average number of goals for each team separately). So let’s see how many goals we expect Chelsea and Sunderland to score.


Predicting Football Results With Statistical Modelling.
Combining the world’s most popular sport with everyone’s favourite discrete probability distribution, this post predicts football matches using the Poisson distribution.
David Sheehan.
Data scientist interested in sports, politics and Simpsons references.
Football (or soccer to my American readers) is full of clichés: “It’s a game of two halves”, “taking it one game at a time” and “Liverpool have failed to win the Premier League”. You’re less likely to hear “Treating the number of goals scored by each team as independent Poisson processes, statistical modelling suggests that the home team have a 60% chance of winning today”. But this is actually a bit of cliché too (it has been discussed here, here, here, here and particularly well here). As we’ll discover, a simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. So, if you came here looking to make money, I hear this guy makes £5000 per month without leaving the house.
Poisson Distribution.
HomeTeam AwayTeam HomeGoals AwayGoals 0 Burnley Swansea 0 1 1 Crystal Palace West Brom 0 1 2 Everton Tottenham 1 1 3 Hull Leicester 2 1 4 Man City Sunderland 2 1.
We imported a csv as a pandas dataframe, which contains various information for each of the 380 EPL games in the 2016-17 English Premier League season. We restricted the dataframe to the columns in which we’re interested (specifically, team names and numer of goals scored by each team). I’ll omit most of the code that produces the graphs in this post. But don’t worry, you can find that code on my github page. Our task is to model the final round of fixtures in the season, so we must remove the last 10 rows (each gameweek consists of 10 matches).
You’ll notice that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This is the so called ‘home (field) advantage’ (discussed here) and isn’t specific to soccer. This is a convenient time to introduce the Poisson distribution. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g 90 mins) with a known average rate of occurrence. A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match. Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals. If that was unclear, maybe this mathematical formulation will make clearer:
represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive, etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of specfic events.
The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where the two teams score the same amount of goals.
Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)). The difference of two Poisson distribution is actually called a Skellam distribution. So we can calculate the probability of a draw by inputting the mean goal values into this distribution.
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland (teams who finished 1st and last, respectively).
Building A Model.
You should now be convinced that the number of goals scored by each team can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Due to a relatively sample size (each team plays at most 19 home/away games), the accuracy of this approximation can vary significantly (especially earlier in the season when teams have played fewer games). Similar to before, we could now calculate the probability of various events in this Chelsea Sunderland match. But rather than treat each match separately, we’ll build a more general Poisson regression model (what is that?).
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results Dep. Variable: goals No. Observations: 740 Model: GLM Df Residuals: 700 Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 39 Link Function: log Scale: 1.0 Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -1042.4 Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 Deviance: 776.11 Time: 11:17:38 Pearson chi2: 659. No. Iterations: 8 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.] Intercept 0.3725 0.198 1.880 0.060 -0.016 0.761 team[T.Bournemouth] -0.2891 0.179 -1.612 0.107 -0.641 0.062 team[T.Burnley] -0.6458 0.200 -3.230 0.001 -1.038 -0.254 team[T.Chelsea] 0.0789 0.162 0.488 0.626 -0.238 0.396 team[T.Crystal Palace] -0.3865 0.183 -2.107 0.035 -0.746 -0.027 team[T.Everton] -0.2008 0.173 -1.161 0.246 -0.540 0.138 team[T.Hull] -0.7006 0.204 -3.441 0.001 -1.100 -0.302 team[T.Leicester] -0.4204 0.187 -2.249 0.025 -0.787 -0.054 team[T.Liverpool] 0.0162 0.164 0.099 0.921 -0.306 0.338 team[T.Man City] 0.0117 0.164 0.072 0.943 -0.310 0.334 team[T.Man United] -0.3572 0.181 -1.971 0.049 -0.713 -0.002 team[T.Middlesbrough] -1.0087 0.225 -4.481 0.000 -1.450 -0.568 team[T.Southampton] -0.5804 0.195 -2.976 0.003 -0.963 -0.198 team[T.Stoke] -0.6082 0.197 -3.094 0.002 -0.994 -0.223 team[T.Sunderland] -0.9619 0.222 -4.329 0.000 -1.397 -0.526 team[T.Swansea] -0.5136 0.192 -2.673 0.008 -0.890 -0.137 team[T.Tottenham] 0.0532 0.162 0.328 0.743 -0.265 0.371 team[T.Watford] -0.5969 0.197 -3.035 0.002 -0.982 -0.211 team[T.West Brom] -0.5567 0.194 -2.876 0.004 -0.936 -0.177 team[T.West Ham] -0.4802 0.189 -2.535 0.011 -0.851 -0.109 opponent[T.Bournemouth] 0.4109 0.196 2.092 0.036 0.026 0.796 opponent[T.Burnley] 0.1657 0.206 0.806 0.420 -0.237 0.569 opponent[T.Chelsea] -0.3036 0.234 -1.298 0.194 -0.762 0.155 opponent[T.Crystal Palace] 0.3287 0.200 1.647 0.100 -0.062 0.720 opponent[T.Everton] -0.0442 0.218 -0.202 0.840 -0.472 0.384 opponent[T.Hull] 0.4979 0.193 2.585 0.010 0.120 0.875 opponent[T.Leicester] 0.3369 0.199 1.694 0.090 -0.053 0.727 opponent[T.Liverpool] -0.0374 0.217 -0.172 0.863 -0.463 0.389 opponent[T.Man City] -0.0993 0.222 -0.448 0.654 -0.534 0.335 opponent[T.Man United] -0.4220 0.241 -1.754 0.079 -0.894 0.050 opponent[T.Middlesbrough] 0.1196 0.208 0.574 0.566 -0.289 0.528 opponent[T.Southampton] 0.0458 0.211 0.217 0.828 -0.369 0.460 opponent[T.Stoke] 0.2266 0.203 1.115 0.265 -0.172 0.625 opponent[T.Sunderland] 0.3707 0.198 1.876 0.061 -0.017 0.758 opponent[T.Swansea] 0.4336 0.195 2.227 0.026 0.052 0.815 opponent[T.Tottenham] -0.5431 0.252 -2.156 0.031 -1.037 -0.049 opponent[T.Watford] 0.3533 0.198 1.782 0.075 -0.035 0.742 opponent[T.West Brom] 0.0970 0.209 0.463 0.643 -0.313 0.507 opponent[T.West Ham] 0.3485 0.198 1.758 0.079 -0.040 0.737 home 0.2969 0.063 4.702 0.000 0.173 0.421.
If you’re curious about the smf.glm(. ) part, you can find more information here (edit: earlier versions of this post had erroneously employed a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE)- what’s the difference?). I’m more interested in the values presented in the coef column in the model summary table, which are analogous to the slopes in linear regression. Similar to logistic regression, we take the exponent of the parameter values. A positive value implies more goals (), while values closer to zero represent more neutral effects (). Towards the bottom of the table you might notice that home has a coef of 0.2969. This captures the fact that home teams generally score more goals than the away team (specifically, =1.35 times more likely). But not all teams are created equal. Chelsea has a coef of 0.0789, while the corresponding value for Sunderland is -0.9619 (sort of saying Chelsea (Sunderland) are better (much worse!) scorers than average). Finally, the opponent* values penalize/reward teams based on the quality of the opposition. This relfects the defensive strength of each team (Chelsea: -0.3036; Sunderland: 0.3707). In other words, you’re less likely to score against Chelsea. Hopefully, that all makes both statistical and intuitive sense.
Let’s start making some predictions for the upcoming matches. We simply pass our teams into poisson_model and it’ll return the expected average number of goals for that team (we need to run it twice- we calculate the expected average number of goals for each team separately). So let’s see how many goals we expect Chelsea and Sunderland to score.


Predicting Football Results With Statistical Modelling.
Combining the world’s most popular sport with everyone’s favourite discrete probability distribution, this post predicts football matches using the Poisson distribution.
David Sheehan.
Data scientist interested in sports, politics and Simpsons references.
Football (or soccer to my American readers) is full of clichés: “It’s a game of two halves”, “taking it one game at a time” and “Liverpool have failed to win the Premier League”. You’re less likely to hear “Treating the number of goals scored by each team as independent Poisson processes, statistical modelling suggests that the home team have a 60% chance of winning today”. But this is actually a bit of cliché too (it has been discussed here, here, here, here and particularly well here). As we’ll discover, a simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. So, if you came here looking to make money, I hear this guy makes £5000 per month without leaving the house.
Poisson Distribution.
HomeTeam AwayTeam HomeGoals AwayGoals 0 Burnley Swansea 0 1 1 Crystal Palace West Brom 0 1 2 Everton Tottenham 1 1 3 Hull Leicester 2 1 4 Man City Sunderland 2 1.
We imported a csv as a pandas dataframe, which contains various information for each of the 380 EPL games in the 2016-17 English Premier League season. We restricted the dataframe to the columns in which we’re interested (specifically, team names and numer of goals scored by each team). I’ll omit most of the code that produces the graphs in this post. But don’t worry, you can find that code on my github page. Our task is to model the final round of fixtures in the season, so we must remove the last 10 rows (each gameweek consists of 10 matches).
You’ll notice that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This is the so called ‘home (field) advantage’ (discussed here) and isn’t specific to soccer. This is a convenient time to introduce the Poisson distribution. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g 90 mins) with a known average rate of occurrence. A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match. Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals. If that was unclear, maybe this mathematical formulation will make clearer:
represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive, etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of specfic events.
The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where the two teams score the same amount of goals.
Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)). The difference of two Poisson distribution is actually called a Skellam distribution. So we can calculate the probability of a draw by inputting the mean goal values into this distribution.
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland (teams who finished 1st and last, respectively).
Building A Model.
You should now be convinced that the number of goals scored by each team can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Due to a relatively sample size (each team plays at most 19 home/away games), the accuracy of this approximation can vary significantly (especially earlier in the season when teams have played fewer games). Similar to before, we could now calculate the probability of various events in this Chelsea Sunderland match. But rather than treat each match separately, we’ll build a more general Poisson regression model (what is that?).
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results Dep. Variable: goals No. Observations: 740 Model: GLM Df Residuals: 700 Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 39 Link Function: log Scale: 1.0 Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -1042.4 Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 Deviance: 776.11 Time: 11:17:38 Pearson chi2: 659. No. Iterations: 8 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.] Intercept 0.3725 0.198 1.880 0.060 -0.016 0.761 team[T.Bournemouth] -0.2891 0.179 -1.612 0.107 -0.641 0.062 team[T.Burnley] -0.6458 0.200 -3.230 0.001 -1.038 -0.254 team[T.Chelsea] 0.0789 0.162 0.488 0.626 -0.238 0.396 team[T.Crystal Palace] -0.3865 0.183 -2.107 0.035 -0.746 -0.027 team[T.Everton] -0.2008 0.173 -1.161 0.246 -0.540 0.138 team[T.Hull] -0.7006 0.204 -3.441 0.001 -1.100 -0.302 team[T.Leicester] -0.4204 0.187 -2.249 0.025 -0.787 -0.054 team[T.Liverpool] 0.0162 0.164 0.099 0.921 -0.306 0.338 team[T.Man City] 0.0117 0.164 0.072 0.943 -0.310 0.334 team[T.Man United] -0.3572 0.181 -1.971 0.049 -0.713 -0.002 team[T.Middlesbrough] -1.0087 0.225 -4.481 0.000 -1.450 -0.568 team[T.Southampton] -0.5804 0.195 -2.976 0.003 -0.963 -0.198 team[T.Stoke] -0.6082 0.197 -3.094 0.002 -0.994 -0.223 team[T.Sunderland] -0.9619 0.222 -4.329 0.000 -1.397 -0.526 team[T.Swansea] -0.5136 0.192 -2.673 0.008 -0.890 -0.137 team[T.Tottenham] 0.0532 0.162 0.328 0.743 -0.265 0.371 team[T.Watford] -0.5969 0.197 -3.035 0.002 -0.982 -0.211 team[T.West Brom] -0.5567 0.194 -2.876 0.004 -0.936 -0.177 team[T.West Ham] -0.4802 0.189 -2.535 0.011 -0.851 -0.109 opponent[T.Bournemouth] 0.4109 0.196 2.092 0.036 0.026 0.796 opponent[T.Burnley] 0.1657 0.206 0.806 0.420 -0.237 0.569 opponent[T.Chelsea] -0.3036 0.234 -1.298 0.194 -0.762 0.155 opponent[T.Crystal Palace] 0.3287 0.200 1.647 0.100 -0.062 0.720 opponent[T.Everton] -0.0442 0.218 -0.202 0.840 -0.472 0.384 opponent[T.Hull] 0.4979 0.193 2.585 0.010 0.120 0.875 opponent[T.Leicester] 0.3369 0.199 1.694 0.090 -0.053 0.727 opponent[T.Liverpool] -0.0374 0.217 -0.172 0.863 -0.463 0.389 opponent[T.Man City] -0.0993 0.222 -0.448 0.654 -0.534 0.335 opponent[T.Man United] -0.4220 0.241 -1.754 0.079 -0.894 0.050 opponent[T.Middlesbrough] 0.1196 0.208 0.574 0.566 -0.289 0.528 opponent[T.Southampton] 0.0458 0.211 0.217 0.828 -0.369 0.460 opponent[T.Stoke] 0.2266 0.203 1.115 0.265 -0.172 0.625 opponent[T.Sunderland] 0.3707 0.198 1.876 0.061 -0.017 0.758 opponent[T.Swansea] 0.4336 0.195 2.227 0.026 0.052 0.815 opponent[T.Tottenham] -0.5431 0.252 -2.156 0.031 -1.037 -0.049 opponent[T.Watford] 0.3533 0.198 1.782 0.075 -0.035 0.742 opponent[T.West Brom] 0.0970 0.209 0.463 0.643 -0.313 0.507 opponent[T.West Ham] 0.3485 0.198 1.758 0.079 -0.040 0.737 home 0.2969 0.063 4.702 0.000 0.173 0.421.
If you’re curious about the smf.glm(. ) part, you can find more information here (edit: earlier versions of this post had erroneously employed a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE)- what’s the difference?). I’m more interested in the values presented in the coef column in the model summary table, which are analogous to the slopes in linear regression. Similar to logistic regression, we take the exponent of the parameter values. A positive value implies more goals (), while values closer to zero represent more neutral effects (). Towards the bottom of the table you might notice that home has a coef of 0.2969. This captures the fact that home teams generally score more goals than the away team (specifically, =1.35 times more likely). But not all teams are created equal. Chelsea has a coef of 0.0789, while the corresponding value for Sunderland is -0.9619 (sort of saying Chelsea (Sunderland) are better (much worse!) scorers than average). Finally, the opponent* values penalize/reward teams based on the quality of the opposition. This relfects the defensive strength of each team (Chelsea: -0.3036; Sunderland: 0.3707). In other words, you’re less likely to score against Chelsea. Hopefully, that all makes both statistical and intuitive sense.
Let’s start making some predictions for the upcoming matches. We simply pass our teams into poisson_model and it’ll return the expected average number of goals for that team (we need to run it twice- we calculate the expected average number of goals for each team separately). So let’s see how many goals we expect Chelsea and Sunderland to score.


Predicting Football Results With Statistical Modelling.
Combining the world’s most popular sport with everyone’s favourite discrete probability distribution, this post predicts football matches using the Poisson distribution.
David Sheehan.
Data scientist interested in sports, politics and Simpsons references.
Football (or soccer to my American readers) is full of clichés: “It’s a game of two halves”, “taking it one game at a time” and “Liverpool have failed to win the Premier League”. You’re less likely to hear “Treating the number of goals scored by each team as independent Poisson processes, statistical modelling suggests that the home team have a 60% chance of winning today”. But this is actually a bit of cliché too (it has been discussed here, here, here, here and particularly well here). As we’ll discover, a simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. So, if you came here looking to make money, I hear this guy makes £5000 per month without leaving the house.
Poisson Distribution.
HomeTeam AwayTeam HomeGoals AwayGoals 0 Burnley Swansea 0 1 1 Crystal Palace West Brom 0 1 2 Everton Tottenham 1 1 3 Hull Leicester 2 1 4 Man City Sunderland 2 1.
We imported a csv as a pandas dataframe, which contains various information for each of the 380 EPL games in the 2016-17 English Premier League season. We restricted the dataframe to the columns in which we’re interested (specifically, team names and numer of goals scored by each team). I’ll omit most of the code that produces the graphs in this post. But don’t worry, you can find that code on my github page. Our task is to model the final round of fixtures in the season, so we must remove the last 10 rows (each gameweek consists of 10 matches).
You’ll notice that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This is the so called ‘home (field) advantage’ (discussed here) and isn’t specific to soccer. This is a convenient time to introduce the Poisson distribution. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g 90 mins) with a known average rate of occurrence. A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match. Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals. If that was unclear, maybe this mathematical formulation will make clearer:
represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive, etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of specfic events.
The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where the two teams score the same amount of goals.
Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)). The difference of two Poisson distribution is actually called a Skellam distribution. So we can calculate the probability of a draw by inputting the mean goal values into this distribution.
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland (teams who finished 1st and last, respectively).
Building A Model.
You should now be convinced that the number of goals scored by each team can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Due to a relatively sample size (each team plays at most 19 home/away games), the accuracy of this approximation can vary significantly (especially earlier in the season when teams have played fewer games). Similar to before, we could now calculate the probability of various events in this Chelsea Sunderland match. But rather than treat each match separately, we’ll build a more general Poisson regression model (what is that?).
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results Dep. Variable: goals No. Observations: 740 Model: GLM Df Residuals: 700 Model Family: Poisson Df Model: 39 Link Function: log Scale: 1.0 Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -1042.4 Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 Deviance: 776.11 Time: 11:17:38 Pearson chi2: 659. No. Iterations: 8 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.] Intercept 0.3725 0.198 1.880 0.060 -0.016 0.761 team[T.Bournemouth] -0.2891 0.179 -1.612 0.107 -0.641 0.062 team[T.Burnley] -0.6458 0.200 -3.230 0.001 -1.038 -0.254 team[T.Chelsea] 0.0789 0.162 0.488 0.626 -0.238 0.396 team[T.Crystal Palace] -0.3865 0.183 -2.107 0.035 -0.746 -0.027 team[T.Everton] -0.2008 0.173 -1.161 0.246 -0.540 0.138 team[T.Hull] -0.7006 0.204 -3.441 0.001 -1.100 -0.302 team[T.Leicester] -0.4204 0.187 -2.249 0.025 -0.787 -0.054 team[T.Liverpool] 0.0162 0.164 0.099 0.921 -0.306 0.338 team[T.Man City] 0.0117 0.164 0.072 0.943 -0.310 0.334 team[T.Man United] -0.3572 0.181 -1.971 0.049 -0.713 -0.002 team[T.Middlesbrough] -1.0087 0.225 -4.481 0.000 -1.450 -0.568 team[T.Southampton] -0.5804 0.195 -2.976 0.003 -0.963 -0.198 team[T.Stoke] -0.6082 0.197 -3.094 0.002 -0.994 -0.223 team[T.Sunderland] -0.9619 0.222 -4.329 0.000 -1.397 -0.526 team[T.Swansea] -0.5136 0.192 -2.673 0.008 -0.890 -0.137 team[T.Tottenham] 0.0532 0.162 0.328 0.743 -0.265 0.371 team[T.Watford] -0.5969 0.197 -3.035 0.002 -0.982 -0.211 team[T.West Brom] -0.5567 0.194 -2.876 0.004 -0.936 -0.177 team[T.West Ham] -0.4802 0.189 -2.535 0.011 -0.851 -0.109 opponent[T.Bournemouth] 0.4109 0.196 2.092 0.036 0.026 0.796 opponent[T.Burnley] 0.1657 0.206 0.806 0.420 -0.237 0.569 opponent[T.Chelsea] -0.3036 0.234 -1.298 0.194 -0.762 0.155 opponent[T.Crystal Palace] 0.3287 0.200 1.647 0.100 -0.062 0.720 opponent[T.Everton] -0.0442 0.218 -0.202 0.840 -0.472 0.384 opponent[T.Hull] 0.4979 0.193 2.585 0.010 0.120 0.875 opponent[T.Leicester] 0.3369 0.199 1.694 0.090 -0.053 0.727 opponent[T.Liverpool] -0.0374 0.217 -0.172 0.863 -0.463 0.389 opponent[T.Man City] -0.0993 0.222 -0.448 0.654 -0.534 0.335 opponent[T.Man United] -0.4220 0.241 -1.754 0.079 -0.894 0.050 opponent[T.Middlesbrough] 0.1196 0.208 0.574 0.566 -0.289 0.528 opponent[T.Southampton] 0.0458 0.211 0.217 0.828 -0.369 0.460 opponent[T.Stoke] 0.2266 0.203 1.115 0.265 -0.172 0.625 opponent[T.Sunderland] 0.3707 0.198 1.876 0.061 -0.017 0.758 opponent[T.Swansea] 0.4336 0.195 2.227 0.026 0.052 0.815 opponent[T.Tottenham] -0.5431 0.252 -2.156 0.031 -1.037 -0.049 opponent[T.Watford] 0.3533 0.198 1.782 0.075 -0.035 0.742 opponent[T.West Brom] 0.0970 0.209 0.463 0.643 -0.313 0.507 opponent[T.West Ham] 0.3485 0.198 1.758 0.079 -0.040 0.737 home 0.2969 0.063 4.702 0.000 0.173 0.421.
If you’re curious about the smf.glm(. ) part, you can find more information here (edit: earlier versions of this post had erroneously employed a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE)- what’s the difference?). I’m more interested in the values presented in the coef column in the model summary table, which are analogous to the slopes in linear regression. Similar to logistic regression, we take the exponent of the parameter values. A positive value implies more goals (), while values closer to zero represent more neutral effects (). Towards the bottom of the table you might notice that home has a coef of 0.2969. This captures the fact that home teams generally score more goals than the away team (specifically, =1.35 times more likely). But not all teams are created equal. Chelsea has a coef of 0.0789, while the corresponding value for Sunderland is -0.9619 (sort of saying Chelsea (Sunderland) are better (much worse!) scorers than average). Finally, the opponent* values penalize/reward teams based on the quality of the opposition. This relfects the defensive strength of each team (Chelsea: -0.3036; Sunderland: 0.3707). In other words, you’re less likely to score against Chelsea. Hopefully, that all makes both statistical and intuitive sense.
Let’s start making some predictions for the upcoming matches. We simply pass our teams into poisson_model and it’ll return the expected average number of goals for that team (we need to run it twice- we calculate the expected average number of goals for each team separately). So let’s see how many goals we expect Chelsea and Sunderland to score.




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Taby – Team TG FF ( SWEDEN: Division 1 – Norra ) TIP : 5 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 51.00 RESULT : 5 : 1 WIN.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 27.06.2020 ( Saturday )
Ludogorets – Lok. Plovdiv ( BULGARIA: Parva liga – Championship Group ) TIP : 6 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 6 : 1 WIN.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 21.06.2020 ( Sunday )
Bodo/Glimt – Haugesund ( NORWAY: Eliteserien ) TIP : 6 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 101.00 RESULT : 6 : 1 WIN.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 09.05.2020 ( Saturday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 03.05.2020 ( Sunday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 12.04.2020 ( Sunday )
Khujand – Khatlon ( TAJIKISTAN: Vysshaya Liga ) TIP : 2 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 2 : 3 WIN.
CORRECT SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 05.04.2020 ( Sunday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 29.03.2020 ( Sunday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 21.03.2020 ( Saturday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 15.03.2020 ( Sunday ) NO CORRECT SCORE TIP TODAY.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 07.03.2020 ( Saturday )
Brackley Town – Blyth ( ENGLAND: National League North ) TIP : 5 : 2 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 5 : 2 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 01.03.2020 ( Sunday )
Kalmar – Jonkopings ( SWEDEN: Svenska Cupen ) TIP : 5 : 0 ( CS ) ODDS : 71.00 RESULT : 5 : 0 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 22.02.2020 ( Saturday )
Dover – AFC Fylde ( ENGLAND: National League ) TIP : 5 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 5 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 16.02.2020 ( Sunday )
Cremonese – Trapani ( ITALY: Serie B ) TIP : 5 : 0 ( CS ) ODDS : 101.00 RESULT : 5 : 0 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 08.02.2020 ( Saturday )
Binacional – FBC Melgar ( PERU Liga 1 – Apertura ) TIP : 2 : 4 ( CS ) ODDS : 101.00 RESULT : 2 : 4 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 01.02.2020 ( Saturday )
Sochaux – Lorient ( FRANCE: Ligue 2 ) TIP : 0 : 0 ( CS ) ODDS : 61.00 RESULT : 0 : 4 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 28.01.2020 ( Tuesday )
FC Halifax – Dover ( ENGLAND: National League ) TIP : 4 : 2 ( CS ) ODDS : 76.00 RESULT : 4 : 2 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 25.01.2020 ( Saturday )
Raith – Montrose ( SCOTLAND: League One ) TIP : 4 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 4 : 3 WIN.
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Trabzonspor – Kasimpasa ( TURKEY: Super Lig ) TIP : 6 : 0 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 6 : 0 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 11.01.2020 ( Saturday )
RW Essen (Ger) – Groningen (Ned) ( WORLD: Club Friendly ) TIP : 2 : 6 ( CS ) ODDS : 126.00 RESULT : 2 : 6 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 05.01.2020 ( Sunday )
QPR – Swansea ( ENGLAND: FA Cup ) TIP : 5 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 5 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 01.01.2020 ( Wednesday )
Bolton – Burton ( ENGLAND: League One ) TIP : 3 : 4 ( CS ) ODDS : 101.00 RESULT : 3 : 4 WIN.
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Academica – Oliveirense ( PORTUGAL: LigaPro ) TIP : 4 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 126.00 RESULT : 4 : 3 WIN.
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Fontinhas – Fatima ( PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal ) TIP : 3 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 3 : 3 WIN.
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Novara – Siena ( ITALY: Serie C – Group A ) TIP : 4 : 0 ( CS ) ODDS : 61.00 RESULT : 4 : 0 WIN.
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DATE : 07.12.2019 ( Saturday )
Akhisarspor – Istanbulspor AS ( TURKEY: 1. Lig ) TIP : 4 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 4 : 3 WIN.
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DATE : 30.11.2019 ( Saturday )
Paks – Ujpest ( HUNGARY: OTP Bank Liga ) TIP : 2 : 4 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 2 : 4 WIN.
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DATE : 23.11.2019 ( Saturday )
Leyton Orient – Forest Green ( ENGLAND: League Two ) TIP : 2 : 4 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 2 : 4 WIN.
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DATE : 16.11.2019 ( Saturday )
Altrincham – Hereford ( ENGLAND: National League North ) TIP : 5 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 5 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 09.11.2019 ( Saturday )
Barnsley – Stoke ( ENGLAND: Championship ) TIP : 2 : 4 ( CS ) ODDS : 51.00 RESULT : 2 : 4 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 02.11.2019 ( Saturday )
Hebei Elite – Jiangxi Liansheng ( China: Yi League ) TIP : 4 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 51.00 RESULT : 4 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 27.10.2019 ( Sunday )
Doxa – Anorthosis ( CYPRUS First Division ) TIP : 0 : 6 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 0 : 6 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 19.10.2019 ( Saturday )
AFC Fylde – Peterborough Sports ( ENGLAND: FA CUP ) TIP : 6 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 51.00 RESULT : 6 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 12.10.2019 ( Saturday )
Queens Univ. – Dundela ( NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL CHAMPIONSHIP ) TIP : 5 : 2 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 5 : 2 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 05.10.2019 ( Saturday )
Montana – Pomorie ( BULGARIA: VTORA LIGA ) TIP : 5 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 61.00 RESULT : 5 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 28.09.2019 ( Saturday )
Hereford – Truro ( ENGLAND: FA CUP ) TIP : 5 : 2 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 5 : 3 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 21.09.2019 ( Saturday )
Asane – Baerum Sportsklubb ( NORWAY: DIVISION 2 – GROUP 2 ) TIP : 6 : 1 ( CS ) ODDS : 61.00 RESULT : 6 : 1 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 14.09.2019 ( Saturday )
The Strongest – Real Potosi ( BOLIVIA: DIVISION PROFESIONAL ) TIP : 6 : 2 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 6 : 2 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 07.09.2019 ( Saturday )
Legion – Elva ( ESTONIA: ESILIIGA ) TIP : 5 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 67.00 RESULT : 5 : 3 WIN.
SINGLE FIXED TIP DATE : 01.09.2019 ( Sunday )
Maritimo B – Chaves B ( PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL ) TIP : 5 : 3 ( CS ) ODDS : 81.00 RESULT : 5 : 3 WIN.
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Best .308/7.62 Rifles for the money: 2020 Review & Guide.
Before getting to the list of the best 308 rifles, there is one small issue that should be cleared up, namely the difference between .308 Winchester and 7.62 NATO. The internet is full of people having very loud and sometimes entertaining arguments over the two rounds.
Now it is true that the 7.62 NATO is a slightly modified .308, and that .308 is often loaded hotter than the 7.62 NATO, the two rounds are interchangeable in modern .308 chambered rifles.
Some might dispute the interchangeability on surplus arms built for 7.62 NATO, but such distinctions are beyond the scope of this article, as we are looking at the best .308 rifles available today, all of which will handle either round just fine.
Having gotten that traditional bit of controversy out of the way, let’s go back a few decades and look at the history of this wildly popular round. The .308 Winchester was born from modifying the .300 Savage, which was designed to work in the popular Savage Model 99 lever action rifle, and have similar ballistics to the .30-06 Springfield.
Following WWII, Winchester, in conjunction with the US Army were working to develop a .30 caliber cartridge that would have similar power to the .30-06, but would be shorter.
Sound familiar? Modifying the .300 Savage, the end result was the .308 Winchester, which was introduced to the public in 1952. Two years later, the 7.62 NATO was born from the same research and experimentation. Today, the .308 Winchester (and 7.62 NATO) are if not the most popular rifle round in the world, one of the most popular rifle rounds.
Capable of taking many big game species, the .308 is found around the world, anywhere where civilian ownership of guns in that caliber are possible. It is wildly popular for match target shooting, hunting and even tactical and sniper rifles . Many Americans have a .308 rifle of some sort, and everything from single shot break action rifles, to tricked out AR style .308’s can be had.
The market for .308/7.62 rifles ranges from affordable blue collar truck guns, to high end precision bolt action sniper and match target rifles. In between, there is a rifle for every use and every budget.
Gun makers like Savage and Ruger offer entry level and high end target rifles, while Henry Repeating Arms offers an affordable .308 lever action rifle, and a nice single shot. Colt and other manufacturers are flooding the market with AR style .308’s that continue to be sold at ever lower and lower price points, while venerable old favorites like M-14 style .308’s are also still made.
No matter what you are after, from a cheap deer rifle, to a military grade sniper rifle, we’ve found and categorized some of the best .308/7.62 rifles on the market today!


The 10 Most Accurate Rifles We’ve Ever Tested (Plus, the Most Accurate Rifle Cartridges)
Among the dozens of accurate production rifles we’ve tested over the years, these are the best for long-range precision hunting. Hunters and shooters have never had it so good.
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4 Best Lever Action Rifles [2020] You Can Still Buy.
How times have changed…
Growing up in rural Idaho meant that every sixth-grade student completed the Idaho Hunter Education course during the school year. On school time…in school classrooms.
And ever since I grabbed a catalog during the Hunter Ed class that featured a Marlin 336CS on the cover…I had to have one.
Though they aren’t made anymore…I still have 5 lever guns of my own that I use to hunt and shoot.
Across a variety of calibers…
Want to start your own lever gun collection?
Read on and you’ll know which guns and calibers are the best for you.
Table of Contents.
America’s Lever Action Gun Love Affair.
This love affair began way back in 1848 when the Volition Repeating Rifle was the first lever gun to receive a patent. That venture failed in 1852 with only a few rifles produced.
Enter Mr. Smith and Mr. Wesson.
They bought the patent and with help from several investors created the Volcanic Repeating Arms Company in 1855.
One of the investors was Oliver Winchester .
The Volcanic Rifle did not gain much traction either. Smith and Wesson moved on to develop their revolvers and Oliver Winchester bought out the remaining investors and renamed the company New Haven Arms Company.
He brought on a man by the name of Benjamin Tyler Henry to rework the Volcanic Rifle design. Today we recognize the Henry Rifle as the result of that design work.
The Henry Rifle was introduced in 1860 and saw action during the Civil War. For those in the south it was better known as “that damn Yankee rifle you load on Sunday and shoot all week”.
At the end of the war, the New Haven Arms Company was renamed the Winchester Repeating Arms Company and a new and improved model of the Henry, the 1866 Winchester was rolled out.
In 1873 the “gun that won the west” the 1873 Winchester made its entrance followed by the 1876 Winchester three years later.
John Moses Browning began his work at Winchester in 1883. Because of his work and designs Winchester and lever action became one in the same. His most famous design, 1894 continues to this day.
The 1894 was first chambered in the 32-40 and 38-55 black powder cartridges.
Then in 1895, the 30 Winchester Centerfire became the first smokeless powder cartridge in America. You know it today as the 30-30 Winchester. It is estimated that more than 7.5 million Model 1894’s have been produced.
When you watch classic westerns if you pay attention you’ll see a lot of Winchester Model 1894’s and a few 1873’s. But go back in time and tune in to the Big Valley and you’ll notice all those boys in the Barkley family are toting Marlins.
The side-ejection Marlin is known for is clearly visible in the show when the inevitable shoot-out goes down.
John Marlin rolled out two lever action designs in the late 1890’s. The Model 39 was a rimfire design and has been in constant production for over 120 years. Today you will find the 39A still available from the Marlin Custom Shop.
The Model 36 had several upgrades and modifications over the years and in 1950’s became the 336.
As mentioned earlier the big difference in Marlin and Winchester lever guns is the ejection. In the early Winchesters, the spent case was ejected straight up as the action opened.
This made mounting optical sights impractical until Angle Eject was introduced in the 1980’s.
The Marlin rifles have a solid-top receiver and eject spent cases out the side. So those that wanted to mount a scope had a solid base to work with and no empties banging the bottom of the scope every time the lever was worked.
Savage went a different direction entirely with its Model 99 introduced in 1899. Rather than a tubular magazine, the Savage rifle has a top-loaded rotary magazine. The action is very streamlined and lends itself well to mounting optics or peep-sights.
There is no hammer, so the lock time is a bit faster than the Winchesters and Marlins. And, because there is no tubular magazine, the Savage easily handles cartridges that excel with spitzer-type bullets such as the 250-3000 Savage (the first commercial cartridge to break the 3000fps barrier) and the 300 Savage.
As American and traditional as the lever action rifle is, there is a bit of an interesting twist concerning the Winchester Model 1895 . At the beginning of World War I, Russia had a problem. They had the biggest standing Army on the planet, but about a third of their soldiers had no rifles.
At the time the United States was a neutral country and Russia went to Winchester and ordered 300,000 musket versions of the Model 1895 chambered in 7.62x54mmR and complete with bayonet lugs. The rifles were also modified to be loaded with what we call stripper clips today.
If you are an avid reader of safari lore you will recognize the Model 1895 in 405 Winchester as Teddy Roosevelt’s “’medicine gun’ for lions”.
Lever Actions Today.
With all the plastic fantastics and AR-15’s and AR-10’s one might think there is no place for old-fashioned lever guns today. But consider this, the lever action rifle was really the first pistol caliber carbine.
Back when ranch hands always had a revolver strapped on in the classic 44-40 cartridge many times there was a rifle in a saddle scabbard loaded up with the same ammo. And lest you think a lever gun is slow, take a look at this video with a well-practiced cowboy action shooter and his lever gun.
Obviously, the lever gun is right at home in the hunting fields. Millions of deer have been harvested by the 30-30 in every brand of lever gun. Not to mention black bears, elk, hogs and small game. With modern bullets, modern powder and modern actions, a lever gun is a useful tool in any hunting situation.
Especially if you start looking at big bores like the 45-70 and 450 Marlin. The sleek Browning Lever-action Rifles are chambered in .308 Winchester and .243. Custom builders like Wild West Guns will supply you with a take-down lever gun built on a Marlin action in the .475 WWG (Wild West Guns) cartridge.
How about as a defensive tool?
Maybe you live in one of the not so gun friendly states that don’t allow dangerous things like removable magazines or pistol grips. Grab yourself a lever gun in .38 Special/.357 Magnum and you now have 10 rounds of stopping power in a very light, very fast platform. If the 38 calibers are not to your liking you can step up to .44 Magnum or .45 Colt and make a lot of big holes very quickly.
4 Best Lever Rifles Today.
I have a wrinkled old yellow notepad with the words “Guns I Still Need” scribbled across the top.
On that list are probably 30 or so guns that at the time I thought would be just right to keep a gun nut and shooter happy.
One of those with a check mark next to it is a Model 99 300 Savage. Another is a Model 99 250-3000 Savage – Take Down…that one does not have a check mark…yet. The rifles below should get you well on the way to a fine collection of lever guns.
1. Henry Rifle.
If you want a smooth as silk action in an American made rifle you need to treat yourself to a Henry. Whether you choose a svelte little 22 Long Rifle or a centerfire cartridge you cannot go wrong investing in a Henry lever gun.
Side-eject, magazine tube loading port and no lawyer inspired safety mechanism mean you are getting a good old-fashioned lever gun the way Benjamin Tyler Henry intended. Take a look at the new .410 shotgun if you want to change up your rabbit hunting or upland bird hunting a bit.




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7 Great Sports Moments (That Might Have Been Fixed)
Wherever you find a losing sports team, you will find fans calling shenanigans. And, thanks to people like Bill Belichick, sometimes they're right.
The fact is some of the greatest coaches, players and games in history have been dogged by rumors of cheating and outright corruption, some of the accusations so outlandish and retarded that they couldn't possibly be true.
Advertisement.
Advertisement.
The Insane Theory :
Muhammad Ali was the greatest sports icon of the second half of the 20th century. He floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, and didn't believe there was anything gay at all about that claim. But despite a long and storied career that spanned decades and continents, the most famous photograph of him was taken early in his career in Maine, at the most poorly attended and controversial heavyweight championship bout ever held.
Not pictured: legitimacy.
The fight was a rematch and the poor bastard Ali's standing over was Sonny Liston. Their first fight had ended mysteriously when Liston refused to come out of his corner. In the months leading up to the rematch, they had a difficult time securing a venue, partially due to rumors of mob involvement, which is how they ended up in Maine. Making things all the more shady, nobody saw the punch that knocked Liston out. While the resulting photograph makes Ali look like he's celebrating in triumph, those who were ringside claim Ali was actually yelling at Liston to get up, presumably so he could at least wait for a more plausible punch before taking a dive.
Advertisement.
Why it Might be True :
In the seedy world of professional boxing, Liston was perhaps the dirtiest and most mysterious guy in the ring. No one knew, including Liston, when or where he was born. Liston had done time and apparently had underworld connections, including having his contract owned by notorious and prominent Mafiosos.
Because of that, there were rumors that Liston bet against himself because he owed money to the mob and really didn't feel like getting fitted with a pair of cliche cement shoes.
Artistic rendering of Liston's Mob Boss.
To make things worse, apparently Liston had another group to fear: the Black Muslims who supported Ali. The word, coming straight from one of Liston's trainers, is that Liston was so petrified of being murdered by the group that he decided it just wasn't worth it to mix it up with Ali. So taking the dive may have killed two birds with one stone.
Advertisement.
Or not, since Liston died a mysterious death (the cops declared it a heroin overdose, but he barely had any in his system), causing some to speculate he was murdered. Man, if you can't trust Mob bosses and violent extremists, who can you trust?
Related:
The Insane Theory :
It wasn't a great moment if you were a Bulls fans, but Jordan's first retirement was one of the biggest and most inexplicable stories of the '90s. He was in his prime and his Bulls were unbeatable. They'd just won their third straight title and showed no signs of slowing down. Jordan is by all accounts one of the most psychotically competitive human beings on the planet and he was in place to challenge the record of eight straight titles. It just made no sense that Jordan would hang up his overpriced sneakers in October of 1993.


7 Great Sports Moments (That Might Have Been Fixed)
Wherever you find a losing sports team, you will find fans calling shenanigans. And, thanks to people like Bill Belichick, sometimes they're right.
The fact is some of the greatest coaches, players and games in history have been dogged by rumors of cheating and outright corruption, some of the accusations so outlandish and retarded that they couldn't possibly be true.
Advertisement.
Advertisement.
The Insane Theory :
Muhammad Ali was the greatest sports icon of the second half of the 20th century. He floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, and didn't believe there was anything gay at all about that claim. But despite a long and storied career that spanned decades and continents, the most famous photograph of him was taken early in his career in Maine, at the most poorly attended and controversial heavyweight championship bout ever held.
Not pictured: legitimacy.
The fight was a rematch and the poor bastard Ali's standing over was Sonny Liston. Their first fight had ended mysteriously when Liston refused to come out of his corner. In the months leading up to the rematch, they had a difficult time securing a venue, partially due to rumors of mob involvement, which is how they ended up in Maine. Making things all the more shady, nobody saw the punch that knocked Liston out. While the resulting photograph makes Ali look like he's celebrating in triumph, those who were ringside claim Ali was actually yelling at Liston to get up, presumably so he could at least wait for a more plausible punch before taking a dive.
Advertisement.
Why it Might be True :
In the seedy world of professional boxing, Liston was perhaps the dirtiest and most mysterious guy in the ring. No one knew, including Liston, when or where he was born. Liston had done time and apparently had underworld connections, including having his contract owned by notorious and prominent Mafiosos.
Because of that, there were rumors that Liston bet against himself because he owed money to the mob and really didn't feel like getting fitted with a pair of cliche cement shoes.
Artistic rendering of Liston's Mob Boss.
To make things worse, apparently Liston had another group to fear: the Black Muslims who supported Ali. The word, coming straight from one of Liston's trainers, is that Liston was so petrified of being murdered by the group that he decided it just wasn't worth it to mix it up with Ali. So taking the dive may have killed two birds with one stone.
Advertisement.
Or not, since Liston died a mysterious death (the cops declared it a heroin overdose, but he barely had any in his system), causing some to speculate he was murdered. Man, if you can't trust Mob bosses and violent extremists, who can you trust?
Related:
The Insane Theory :
It wasn't a great moment if you were a Bulls fans, but Jordan's first retirement was one of the biggest and most inexplicable stories of the '90s. He was in his prime and his Bulls were unbeatable. They'd just won their third straight title and showed no signs of slowing down. Jordan is by all accounts one of the most psychotically competitive human beings on the planet and he was in place to challenge the record of eight straight titles. It just made no sense that Jordan would hang up his overpriced sneakers in October of 1993.


7 Great Sports Moments (That Might Have Been Fixed)
Wherever you find a losing sports team, you will find fans calling shenanigans. And, thanks to people like Bill Belichick, sometimes they're right.
The fact is some of the greatest coaches, players and games in history have been dogged by rumors of cheating and outright corruption, some of the accusations so outlandish and retarded that they couldn't possibly be true.
Advertisement.
Advertisement.
The Insane Theory :
Muhammad Ali was the greatest sports icon of the second half of the 20th century. He floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, and didn't believe there was anything gay at all about that claim. But despite a long and storied career that spanned decades and continents, the most famous photograph of him was taken early in his career in Maine, at the most poorly attended and controversial heavyweight championship bout ever held.
Not pictured: legitimacy.
The fight was a rematch and the poor bastard Ali's standing over was Sonny Liston. Their first fight had ended mysteriously when Liston refused to come out of his corner. In the months leading up to the rematch, they had a difficult time securing a venue, partially due to rumors of mob involvement, which is how they ended up in Maine. Making things all the more shady, nobody saw the punch that knocked Liston out. While the resulting photograph makes Ali look like he's celebrating in triumph, those who were ringside claim Ali was actually yelling at Liston to get up, presumably so he could at least wait for a more plausible punch before taking a dive.
Advertisement.
Why it Might be True :
In the seedy world of professional boxing, Liston was perhaps the dirtiest and most mysterious guy in the ring. No one knew, including Liston, when or where he was born. Liston had done time and apparently had underworld connections, including having his contract owned by notorious and prominent Mafiosos.
Because of that, there were rumors that Liston bet against himself because he owed money to the mob and really didn't feel like getting fitted with a pair of cliche cement shoes.
Artistic rendering of Liston's Mob Boss.
To make things worse, apparently Liston had another group to fear: the Black Muslims who supported Ali. The word, coming straight from one of Liston's trainers, is that Liston was so petrified of being murdered by the group that he decided it just wasn't worth it to mix it up with Ali. So taking the dive may have killed two birds with one stone.
Advertisement.
Or not, since Liston died a mysterious death (the cops declared it a heroin overdose, but he barely had any in his system), causing some to speculate he was murdered. Man, if you can't trust Mob bosses and violent extremists, who can you trust?
Related:
The Insane Theory :
It wasn't a great moment if you were a Bulls fans, but Jordan's first retirement was one of the biggest and most inexplicable stories of the '90s. He was in his prime and his Bulls were unbeatable. They'd just won their third straight title and showed no signs of slowing down. Jordan is by all accounts one of the most psychotically competitive human beings on the planet and he was in place to challenge the record of eight straight titles. It just made no sense that Jordan would hang up his overpriced sneakers in October of 1993.


7 Great Sports Moments (That Might Have Been Fixed)
Wherever you find a losing sports team, you will find fans calling shenanigans. And, thanks to people like Bill Belichick, sometimes they're right.
The fact is some of the greatest coaches, players and games in history have been dogged by rumors of cheating and outright corruption, some of the accusations so outlandish and retarded that they couldn't possibly be true.
Advertisement.
Advertisement.
The Insane Theory :
Muhammad Ali was the greatest sports icon of the second half of the 20th century. He floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, and didn't believe there was anything gay at all about that claim. But despite a long and storied career that spanned decades and continents, the most famous photograph of him was taken early in his career in Maine, at the most poorly attended and controversial heavyweight championship bout ever held.
Not pictured: legitimacy.
The fight was a rematch and the poor bastard Ali's standing over was Sonny Liston. Their first fight had ended mysteriously when Liston refused to come out of his corner. In the months leading up to the rematch, they had a difficult time securing a venue, partially due to rumors of mob involvement, which is how they ended up in Maine. Making things all the more shady, nobody saw the punch that knocked Liston out. While the resulting photograph makes Ali look like he's celebrating in triumph, those who were ringside claim Ali was actually yelling at Liston to get up, presumably so he could at least wait for a more plausible punch before taking a dive.
Advertisement.
Why it Might be True :
In the seedy world of professional boxing, Liston was perhaps the dirtiest and most mysterious guy in the ring. No one knew, including Liston, when or where he was born. Liston had done time and apparently had underworld connections, including having his contract owned by notorious and prominent Mafiosos.
Because of that, there were rumors that Liston bet against himself because he owed money to the mob and really didn't feel like getting fitted with a pair of cliche cement shoes.
Artistic rendering of Liston's Mob Boss.
To make things worse, apparently Liston had another group to fear: the Black Muslims who supported Ali. The word, coming straight from one of Liston's trainers, is that Liston was so petrified of being murdered by the group that he decided it just wasn't worth it to mix it up with Ali. So taking the dive may have killed two birds with one stone.
Advertisement.
Or not, since Liston died a mysterious death (the cops declared it a heroin overdose, but he barely had any in his system), causing some to speculate he was murdered. Man, if you can't trust Mob bosses and violent extremists, who can you trust?
Related:
The Insane Theory :
It wasn't a great moment if you were a Bulls fans, but Jordan's first retirement was one of the biggest and most inexplicable stories of the '90s. He was in his prime and his Bulls were unbeatable. They'd just won their third straight title and showed no signs of slowing down. Jordan is by all accounts one of the most psychotically competitive human beings on the planet and he was in place to challenge the record of eight straight titles. It just made no sense that Jordan would hang up his overpriced sneakers in October of 1993.


7 Great Sports Moments (That Might Have Been Fixed)
Wherever you find a losing sports team, you will find fans calling shenanigans. And, thanks to people like Bill Belichick, sometimes they're right.
The fact is some of the greatest coaches, players and games in history have been dogged by rumors of cheating and outright corruption, some of the accusations so outlandish and retarded that they couldn't possibly be true.
Advertisement.
Advertisement.
The Insane Theory :
Muhammad Ali was the greatest sports icon of the second half of the 20th century. He floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, and didn't believe there was anything gay at all about that claim. But despite a long and storied career that spanned decades and continents, the most famous photograph of him was taken early in his career in Maine, at the most poorly attended and controversial heavyweight championship bout ever held.
Not pictured: legitimacy.
The fight was a rematch and the poor bastard Ali's standing over was Sonny Liston. Their first fight had ended mysteriously when Liston refused to come out of his corner. In the months leading up to the rematch, they had a difficult time securing a venue, partially due to rumors of mob involvement, which is how they ended up in Maine. Making things all the more shady, nobody saw the punch that knocked Liston out. While the resulting photograph makes Ali look like he's celebrating in triumph, those who were ringside claim Ali was actually yelling at Liston to get up, presumably so he could at least wait for a more plausible punch before taking a dive.
Advertisement.
Why it Might be True :
In the seedy world of professional boxing, Liston was perhaps the dirtiest and most mysterious guy in the ring. No one knew, including Liston, when or where he was born. Liston had done time and apparently had underworld connections, including having his contract owned by notorious and prominent Mafiosos.
Because of that, there were rumors that Liston bet against himself because he owed money to the mob and really didn't feel like getting fitted with a pair of cliche cement shoes.
Artistic rendering of Liston's Mob Boss.
To make things worse, apparently Liston had another group to fear: the Black Muslims who supported Ali. The word, coming straight from one of Liston's trainers, is that Liston was so petrified of being murdered by the group that he decided it just wasn't worth it to mix it up with Ali. So taking the dive may have killed two birds with one stone.
Advertisement.
Or not, since Liston died a mysterious death (the cops declared it a heroin overdose, but he barely had any in his system), causing some to speculate he was murdered. Man, if you can't trust Mob bosses and violent extremists, who can you trust?
Related:
The Insane Theory :
It wasn't a great moment if you were a Bulls fans, but Jordan's first retirement was one of the biggest and most inexplicable stories of the '90s. He was in his prime and his Bulls were unbeatable. They'd just won their third straight title and showed no signs of slowing down. Jordan is by all accounts one of the most psychotically competitive human beings on the planet and he was in place to challenge the record of eight straight titles. It just made no sense that Jordan would hang up his overpriced sneakers in October of 1993.




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Vontaze Burfict thinks some games are 'rigged,' says 'refs pick and choose' when to throw penalty flags.
The Raiders linebacker is calling into question the integrity of the game.
It's been nearly eight weeks since Vontaze Burfict played in his last NFL game of 2019. The Raiders linebacker has been out since the end of Week 4, when he was given a season-long suspension for a helmet-to-helmet hit that he placed on Colts tight end Jack Doyle.
Although Burfict has been laying low for most of his suspension, the linebacker did come out of the woodwork recently to do an interview with The Athletic, and let's just say, it seems he had some bottled up emotions that he wanted to get off his chest, and most of those emotions had to do with the NFL and some key league executives.
For one, Burfict made a shocking accusation that probably isn't going to go over too well in the league office: The Raiders linebacker said he believes that some NFL games are rigged. According to Burfict, the league is able to pull it off because the officials can control the outcome of any game. Burfict's opinion on the subject came up when he was asked if he had been watching any football during his suspension.
"I honestly think some of the games are rigged," Burfict said. "The refs pick and choose when they want to throw their flags. There are flags on every play. The refs determine the outcomes of games, so I just chose not to watch it for the most part."
Basically, Burfict is calling into question the integrity of the game, which won't make Roger Goodell happy. With gambling now legal in multiple states, the NFL commissioner had been emphasizing the integrity of the game recently, and how important it is for fans to trust that there aren't any "outside influences" on the outcomes of NFL games.
"You don't want to do anything that's going to impact negatively on the integrity of our game," Goodell said in January 2018. "You want to be certain that there are no outside influences on our game, and that fans don't even have any issue with that; they understand, whether it's a perception or not, that there is no influence on our game. And that's something we stand firmly behind on the integrity of our game."
For the NFL, it's not an ideal time for Burfict to make that accusation due to how bad the officiating has been this season.
Also, Burfict isn't the only one who seems to think that refs might be throwing flags that don't need to be thrown. After the 49ers' Week 11 win over the Cardinals, Richard Sherman said he felt that he was being unfairly targeted by officials, which isn't that abnormal, because most defensive backs probably feel that way. However, Sherman's reasoning was definitely abnormal: The 49ers cornerback insinuated that refs were flagging him as payback for the fact that he's a member of the NFLPA's executive committee.
As for Burfict, if it does turn out that Goodell isn't thrilled with his comments, the linebacker probably won't care. Burfict didn't mince words when he was asked about the commissioner, who he met with in October when he appealed his suspension .
"I met Roger Goodell in New York and he was a total b----," Burfict said. "He was a b----. He didn't let anybody speak, he rushed us in and out of the meeting. The meeting was b-------. He already had the suspension in his hand."
Players will almost never come out and question the NFL the way Burfict did during his interview, so it will be interesting to see if the league responds to his comments.


Current NFL Star Drops Bomb: ‘NFL Games Are Rigged’
NFL games are routinely “rigged” by officials working on behalf of the league to choose the outcomes of games, according to Oakland Raiders linebacker Vontaze Burfict.
Currently serving a season-long suspension for a helmet-to-helmet hit, Burfict was speaking to The Athletic when he was asked if he had been watching any football during his suspension.
According to Burfict, the league is able to pull it off because the officials can control the outcome of any game.
“ I honestly think some of the games are rigged ,” Burfict said. “ The refs pick and choose when they want to throw their flags. There are flags on every play. The refs determine the outcomes of games, so I just chose not to watch it for the most part. “
The shocking accusation isn’t likely to go over well with the league office, which has been emphasizing the integrity of the game recently.
It is also a brave move considering the last NFL insider to publicly claim the league is rigged mysteriously “drowned” in a ditch after her car was run off the road.
Jessica Savitch was a pioneer, serving as America’s first female anchorwoman, hosting the nightly NBC news. But after her epic NFL takedown, she was found dead months later, in a drainage ditch off the Delaware Canal outside of Philadelphia.
See her full report here:
CBSSports report: Basically, Burfict is calling into question the integrity of the game, which won’t make Roger Goodell happy. With gambling now legal in multiple states, the NFL commissioner had been emphasizing the integrity of the game recently, and how important it is for fans to trust that there aren’t any “ outside influences ” on the outcomes of NFL games.
“ You don’t want to do anything that’s going to impact negatively on the integrity of our game ,” Goodell said in January 2018. “ You want to be certain that there are no outside influences on our game, and that fans don’t even have any issue with that; they understand, whether it’s a perception or not, that there is no influence on our game. And that’s something we stand firmly behind on the integrity of our game.”
As for Burfict, if it does turn out that Goodell isn’t thrilled with his comments, the linebacker probably won’t care. Burfict didn’t mince words when he was asked about the commissioner, who he met with in October when he appealed his suspension.
“ I met Roger Goodell in New York and he was a total b—- ,” Burfict said. “ He was a b—-. He didn’t let anybody speak, he rushed us in and out of the meeting. The meeting was b——-. He already had the suspension in his hand. “
Players almost never come out and question the NFL the way Burfict did during his interview, so it will be very interesting to see how the paranoid league responds to his comments.


Meet the Conspiracy Theorists Who Believe the NFL Is Fixed.
Brian Tuohy can’t prove the NFL is fixed, but he’s convinced it’s the truth. “I’m certain of it,” Tuohy tells me with a confidence only a conspiracy theorist can conjure.
What most fans dismiss as quirky plays, missed calls and statistical anomalies, Tuohy sees as evidence of the NFL’s corruption. “We see bizarre [referee] calls and bizarre plays and think, It’s just one of those things ,” Tuohy explains. “Well, I don’t think it’s just one of those things. I don’t believe in coincidences, especially when it’s a multibillion-dollar company calling the shots.”
Touhy became the de facto leader of the NFL truther movement in 2010 when he published The Fix Is In , a book about rampant corruption in professional sports published by Feral House, a publisher known for trafficking in fringe subject matter. “The same day my book was released, they also released The Unabomber’s Manifesto ,” he says. (For the record, Tuohy bristles at being called a “conspiracy theorist,” a term conspiracy theorists generally regard as part of a conspiracy theory aimed at diminishing their theories.)
The Fix Is In covered how each of the professional sports leagues manipulates games to increase television ratings, and in turn, their popularity and revenues. Since then, Tuohy has kept a blog of the same name, chronicling the many ways in which the NFL has controlled the outcomes of games and deceived its fans into thinking they were watching “pure” competition.
One piece of his evidence: The Green Bay Packers went 15–1 in the 2011 regular season, one win shy of a “perfect” record. But Tuohy points out the Packers didn’t have a single offensive holding call made against them in 11 straight games that season. Holding can be called on just about every play in an NFL game, so for it not to be called against one team for that many games is more than mere coincidence, argues Tuohy. It was, in his estimation, part of a coordinated effort to vault young Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to superstardom.
“The NFL sees certain storylines start to develop, and then says, ‘This guy is national news. What if we give him a little help here and there and extend this storyline longer than it should naturally go?’” Tuohy posits. “Suddenly a team that was supposed to be 8–8 is 10–6 and in the playoffs — and isn’t that good for everyone?”
The NFL concocted a similar plot last year, he says, with the Dallas Cowboys and their rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who more or less ended Tony Romo’s career with his stellar play, and with Tim Tebow when he made an improbable postseason run with the Denver Broncos in 2011. Sometimes the league interferes with individual calls, Tuohy says, such as Calvin Johnson’s infamous non-catch against the Chicago Bears in 2010. (The Bears would go on to win the division. Hmm .) Or when Dez Bryant suffered from a similar call in the 2014 playoffs. (Against the beloved Packers, no less. Interesting. )
“[The definition of a catch] is one of the gray areas the NFL can exist in,” Tuohy says. “The official could have come back on the field and said it was a catch because of A, B or C in the rulebook. Instead, he came back on the field and said it wasn’t a catch because of X, Y and Z. The rules are so gray in this area that it lets the league manipulate the game right in front of its fans. I don’t think it’s bad officiating. It’s intentional.”
Similarly, he believes this past Super Bowl, which is widely considered to be the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL, if not all of televised sport, was also rigged. “To me, that was a script taken directly from professional wrestling, right down to Roger Goodell handing the trophy over and getting booed off the field,” Tuohy says. (In wrestling parlance, Goodell was a major heel vis-á-vis the Patriots for suspending quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season — and for a crime many believe he didn’t commit or that Goodell couldn’t prove.)
Tuohy points out that the NFL is under no legal obligation to ensure a fair game. The games the league provides are entertainment, and it can produce that entertainment anyway it pleases.
As proof, Tuohy cites more than 400 FBI files he secured under a Freedom of Information Act request for his second book Larceny Games . The files show the Bureau was investigating rampant gambling corruption in the league in the late-1960s and 1970s. That said, the Bureau was never able to bring criminal charges.
“Oh, God yes, it [still] happens,” San Diego–based journalist Don Bauder, a fellow NFL truther, says of Sunday point-shaving. Bauder first started covering the NFL in 1964 as a reporter at Businessweek . He left the job for the San Diego Union-Tribune , where he served for years as the paper’s finance editor and finance columnist. He retired in 2003, and now keeps a blog hosted by the San Diego Reader alt-weekly.
At its founding, the NFL was financed by mobsters who had an interest in making sure games went a certain way, Bauder says. The gambling persisted, he alleges, until the 1980s, only subsiding once player salaries started to skyrocket and throwing games was no longer worth the risk for them.
Still: “I don’t think it goes on as much as it did in the past, but I’m sure it does happen,” he argues.
As proof of their beliefs, both Bauder and Tuohy could only speculate on possible scenarios and offer circumstantial evidence. They remain undeterred nonetheless. “People say, ‘Prove it.’ I’m sorry, I can’t prove it,” Tuohy says. “But if [game fixing] has happened once in the past five years or 10 years, because the league wants to further a certain story line, then the league has no integrity.
“All I have to do is be right once, and then I’m right across the board.”




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